EUR/USD (Quarterly) - Going back to 1987 we can see, that we are in a big up-trending channel and are currently flirting with the mid-point of this channel. The mid-point is close to 127.00 and should offer support. Some weeks ago I showed the Pitchfork support at 126.45, so we will find strong support in the 126.45 - 127 area, but if this support breaks then we should be looking for a much deeper decline.
S&P 500 (Yearly) - 2011 was a year of indecision. The long-legged Doji candle (open of the year at 1,567.62 and the closing of the year at 1,567.60 was almost identical) is a bearish candle and should add pressure to the downside for 2012 in general. That doesn't mean, that we couldn't see a move closer towards 1,300 in the start of the year, but downside pressure should build in the first and second quarter of 2012.Going back to 1982 we can see, that we retraced an almost perfect 61.8% at 666.79 of the rally from 119.13 to 1,553.11.
I would look for support in the 1,115 - 1,116 area as the first target, but we would also likely see the 1,000 - 1,011 area tested during the first half of 2012.
Gold (Yearly) - 11 straight years of rising gold prices and from the bottom (251.70 in 1999) to the top (1,920.30 in 2011) a nice Fibonacci 13 years of rise.Looking further back the 1970 bottom of 34.95 to the 1980 top at 835.00 we closed withing 10 points from the 1.618 times the 1970 - 1980 rise in 2011. I do think it's time for a long rest in gold's uptrend. During 2012 I will be looking for a decline towards the 1,282 area and possibly even to 1,086 during the first three quarters of 2013, before we should look for new highs in gold.
Be aware that a break below 1,086 will call for further declines towards 890 before we can expect a rise to new highs. This is not my favored scenario, but we can't ignore the possibility.
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