Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Change of the long-term count


Change of the long-term count

As the former low at 1.1950 is close to being broken, I have reviewed my previous long-term count and find it appropriate to change the count. 
Under this new preferred long-term count, wave B is still in motion and calls for a final dip closer to 1.0842 before completing wave B and setting the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave C towards 2.0178 and likely above here too. 
A break below 1.1950 will confirm this new preferred long-term count. Even-though more downside is expected, it's important to be aware that this is the final dip in the long-term decline from 2.1166 and all that's needed is a break below 1.1950 to fulfill all requirements to the decline in wave B. So ride this decline with care. 


Thursday, July 4, 2019

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Will History repeat?


Dow Jones Industrial Index - Will History repeat?

I will let the chart speak for itself...

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD - Wave B is expected to be an expanded flat correction



Wave B is expected to be an expanded flat correction 

In my last long-term update from June 18 - 2016 I was calling for a decline in Cable to 0.9534, which still remains my target.

However, the B wave opted for the alternate route, by breaking above 1.4770. I also showed that alternate count for wave B in my June 18 - 2016 update (You can see that post here).

Ideally wave 2 should have completed with the test of 1.2442 at the year-end 2018 and wave 3 towards 1.6345 should be developing. However, the political uncertainty due to the Brexit and shift of Prime Minister in the UK is weighing on the GBP and we might even see Cable break below 1.2442 shortly before starting to move higher in wave 3.

B-waves are notoriously difficult to track and trade. They can take on any shape the want and shift to a new count when you least awaits it.

However, the long-term count remains the same, which is lower to 0.9534 once wave C takes over.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD - Wave 2 could complete anytime now



Wave 2 could complete anytime now

In my last long-term update from June 18 - 2016 I was looking for a final dip closer to 0.9880 to complete the decline from July 2008 peak at 1.6038. 

The decline completed December 2016 with a dip to "just" 1.0352 and has since staged an impulsive rally in wave 1 to a high of 1.2556 in February 2018. This impulsive rally has been followed by a wave 2 correction to the 61.8% corrective target at 1.1194 (the low has been seen at 1.1107). 

Wave 3 is now ready to take over for a new impulsive rally 1.4693 where wave 3 will be an 161.8% extension of wave 1. 

Ultimately I will be looking for a break back above the July 2008 peak at 1.6038. 

A break above minor resistance at 1.1348 will be a strong indication that wave 2 finally is complete and wave 3 is developing. 

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Break above 1,360 call for rally towards 1,710



Break above 1,360 call for rally towards 1,710

Gold has tried to break above resistance at 1,360 for a long time now and with a clear break above in place, we should see gold continue to climb in the weeks and months ahead towards the 1,710 target.

The rally of the 1,046 low is clearly corrective in nature - Wave B is a triangle. indicating that this rally will be a three wave affair to complete larger wave (B) in a much larger triangle, which I expect will last another 11-12 years before completing and setting the stage for a shot to the moon.

The former resistance near 1,360 will now work as support and protect the downside for the expected rally higher. 

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Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Elliott wave analysis for Crude Oil - The corrective rally from 26.06 is now complete


Crude Oil - The corrective rally from 26.06 is now complete 

In my June 2016 post I call for Crude Oil to continue to rally towards the long-term resistance line  (you can see that post by clicking here).

We have now seen a test of this resistance line. Not a prefect test, but close enough to fulfill that target. So at a minimum, we should see a decline to 57.48 and more likely closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 45.47 of the rally from 26.06 to 76.90.

Could we see a return and maybe even a break below the February 2016 low at 26.06? Yes! we could. That said, we should be painfully aware, that the corrective rally from 26.06 could become much more complex and the ongoing decline only is a X-wave that binds two corrections together.

What we can rest assure of from here is, a general downside pressure for weeks ahead and a decline to at least 57.48 and likely even closer to 45.47 before the possibility of a new rally to test the long-term resistance line again.

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Friday, January 5, 2018

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/JPY - Look for upside acceleration in wave 3/ of 3 the wonder to behold...


GBP/JPY - Monthly



GBP/JPY - Weekly

GBP/JPY - Daily


GBP/JPY - 4 Hourly 

Cups with handle

GBP/JPY - Look for upside acceleration in wave 3/ of 3 the wonder to behold...

A break above minor resistance at 153.41 will release a lot of build up energy and should cause GBP/JPY to accelerate higher towards 159.00 as the first minor target, but longer term, a continuation higher to 164.85 and 172.00 should be expected. 
The classic technical analysis also shows a nice pair of "Cups with handle" formation ready to take GBP/JPY much higher (see chart 5). 
If my long-term count is correct, then we are entering wave 3/ of 3, which normally is the strongest of the waves and the prices action here, often becomes almost vertical. 
So be ready to pull the trigger for a nice big rally - "The wonder to behold" as Pretcher says it...  

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