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Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Next upside target seen at 3,100

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Next upside target seen at 3,100



If gold closes the month of March above 1,972 then gold should be headed for 3,100 as the next upside target. 

That said we do see a real possibility of a run-away market as wave V finally gathers upside momentum and run-away markets in the fifth wave in the commodity complex is more the rule that not. 

So keep an eye on gold in the month ahead as it could be the focus of attention. 

Silver is currently lagging the rally in gold, which is uncommon, and I expect silver to gather momentum alongside gold and eclipse important resistance at 30,00 for a continuation towards the former all-time high at 50,00.  
 

Monday, March 4, 2024

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil - Neckline broken Rally to 95.03 next




Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil - Neckline broken Rally to 95.03 next  


In my February 23 post I showed the possible S/H/S bottom and said, that a break above the neckline would call for a rally towards 95.03. This rally is now in the cards as the neckline has been broken and the S/H/S-bottom formation now is activated. 

Longer term a rally closer to 129.30 is expected, but let's take the coming rally in baby-steps and first look for the S/H/S-bottoms target near 95.03. 


Friday, March 1, 2024

US 10Y Yield Should Peak Near 4.48

 


US 10Y Yield Should Peak Near 4.48


In my December 20 post (You can see that post by clicking here). I called for a corrective rally for the US 10Y yield towards 4.51%. Well we could see a rally close to 4.51%, but a more likely target is seen near 4.48% from where we should see wave C take over for a decline towards support in the 3.23 - 3.38 area. 

Short term a break below minor support at 4.06 will indicate that wave B has completed and wave C lower towards 3.38 is in motion. 

Friday, February 23, 2024

Elliott Wave Analysis - Crude Oil In a S/H/S Bottom


Elliott Wave Analysis - Crude Oil In a S/H/S Bottom 


Crude oil is currently in a S/H/S bottom, that will be triggered upon a break above the neckline resistance at 79.29 and a break above here will call for a rally towards the 95.03 high. This high should only prove to be a temporary stop on the way higher towards the 129.30 high. 

Support is currently seen at 75.52 which is expected to act as a solid floor for the break above neckline resistance. 




 

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Elliott Wave Analysis - EUR/USD Headed for 1.2860


Elliott Wave Analysis - EUR/USD Headed for 1.2860 


In my February 5 post, I called for EUR/USD to move lower to test support at 1.0760. We have seen a low 1.0695 before EUR/USD bottomed and turned higher. Perfectly on the cycle low on February 14. 

I will now be looking for EUR/USD to break above minor resistance at 1.0898 to confirm that wave (2) indeed has completed and wave (3) higher towards 1.1830 is in motion. At 1.1830 wave 3 will be 1.618 times the length of wave (1), however, I wouldn't be surprised to see wave (3) extend ever further towards 1.2505 where wave (3) will be 2.618 times the length of wave (1) and maybe even closer to the 3 times extension of wave (1) at 1.2860.

Look for EUR/USD to gain upside momentum in the weeks ahead. 

Friday, February 16, 2024

AI Mania Is Here






 




Welcome to the AI mania. If you can remember the late 1990's and the dot com boom, this was what it looked like. and it will not end well. 

Now it's just a question whether this mania will end during 2024, 2025 or maybe it will last all the way to 2026? 

I don't know, but when it ends "Oh dear"...




Thursday, February 15, 2024

Super Boom - DJI in 38,820 in 2025


Super Boom - DJI in 38,820 in 2025


In 2011 Jeffery Hirsch released his book "Super Boom". The main theme of the book was that Jeffery expected the Dow Jones Industrial Index to hit a high of 38,820 in 2025. 

Jeffery build the case on the back of his father, who made a similar call back in 1974 when the DJI was at 570 to rally 500 percent to 3,420 by 1990 which is did. 

Well the Hirsch family did it again as the DJI just hit an all-time high of 38,927 on February 2024. Well it was a year early, but I personally will not hold that against him. 

We do see a clear divergence from the RSI, where the RSI indicator no longer confirms the high made in the DJI. Price has hit the upper resistance-line of the price-channel and finally a five wave rally can be counted from the 1932 low at 40,56. So the possibility of a major top in 2024 or 2025 is higher and should result in a lager correction towards 18,640 as we approach the end of the century should not come as a surprise.

That said, it's also important to stress, that once the correction is complete more upside is expected and a new major rally is in the cards. 

So hats off for Jeffery Hirsch call back in 2011.