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Thursday, January 19, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; DJI; Shanghai Comp.; CRB; Gold and Crude oil

EUR/USD - Is trying to break above resistance at 128.55, but I think it will be a failure. I'm looking for a break back below 128.30 and more importantly 127.75 to confirm the failure and call for a new decline towards strong support near 125.50 (see the monthly chart below).
If the break above 128.55 is sustained with a continuation above 128.85 we must accept a move towards 131, before renewed downside pressure can be expected. (not my preferred view)
Dow Jones Industrial - Is doing a brilliant job, holding on to its gains despite massive divergence and strong resistance. I still don't like it up here. I do think the technical picture is as ugly as you get them, but as long as support at 12,453 and more importantly support at 12,311 protects the downside, the upside pressure stays intact.
A break below 12,311 will call for a decline towards 11,735 and lower.
Shanghai Composite - Is still working on its wave 2 correction, which should hit closer to the 2,335 area from there risk again turns to the downside.
CRB Index - Was rejected at the channel resistance line and I think we are developing a minor topping pattern calling for a new decline to test the strong support at 293. A break below 306.75 will trigger the minor topping pattern and call for the test of 293.
Gold - Is holding on to its gains too, but here to I don't like it up here. We are facing strong resistance in this area and a break below 1,625 will ease the upside pressure for a new decline towards strong support near 1,525.
Crude oil - Here too we are facing strong resistance in this area, but we need a break below 99.80 and more importantly 97.70 to ease the upside pressure for a decline towards 92.50 and probably lower will be seen.

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