Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; VIX-Index; DJI; Shanghai Comp.; Junk-Bonds; Gold and Crude oil

You might have noticed that, an "Unknown" reader has had some issues with my analysis always being wrong. I surely hope they are not, but I just wanted you all to know, that you always are welcome to comment on whatever I'm writing. I might have overlooked something and a dialog is always nicer than a monologue.
So feel free to comment, but not only when you dislike what I'm doing, that adds nothing of value to me or you for that matter. Have a great weekend.
USD Index - Broken below a rising channel (just as Unknown wrote yesterday), which happens to be more or less equivalent to the break above 128.80 in EUR/USD. That means an other test of the neckline support near 79.25 (near 131 in EUR/USD) is in the cards. I still think this support will hold for a new rally towards the inverted S/H/S formations target near 82.60.

EUR/USD - To my surprise we broke above resistance at 128.80, which calls for a move closer to resistance in the 130.85 - 131 area. The major Pitchfork I have showed a couple of times worked again. Support at 125.50 (not quite tested) held but I do expect, that we will have a new test of this support area, after the minor rally towards the 130.85 - 131 area.

USD/JPY - Is working on a new challenge of the long term falling downtrend line. This downtrend needs to be broken to call the test of 75.57 an important bottom and a rally towards 82.85 as first target, but longer term we would be looking at much higher targets. The risk is, that the downtrend once again does its job and turn USD/JPY down for a break below 76.50, which would call for a decline closer to 74.00.VIX Index - Here too the ending diagonal resistance line turn us down for a new low, and we could see a move even lower towards the low 18 area, but any break above the resistance line and resistance at 23.44 will call for a rally back towards at least 34.75 and probably even higher.

Dow Jones Industrial - Is at the ultimate decision point. We have resistance from the 2007 and 2011 high coming in. We have a wedge formation, which normally have 2/3 chance of coming through and finally divergence on the MACD-indicator. I do think those odds favor a top soon and a break below 12,474 and more importantly 12,311 for a decline back towards the neckline support (pink). However risk of cause is a clear break above resistance here calling for a new rally towards the May 2011 high at 12,876.

To me this poses a low risk selling opportunity here with a very tight stop at 12,675. It doesn't come much better than this.

Shanghai Composite - Is headed for resistance at 2,372, which is where wave c of 2 will equal wave a of 2 and we have multiple resistance here. Once this resistance is tested I would look for renewed downside pressure.

Junk Bond (JNK) - Is at a major decision point. I expect resistance at 39.10 to hold for a break below support at 38.50 for the next decline towards the mid-32 area. However a break above 39.10 will lift us up to the next resistance at 39.60, but I still regard the upside as limited.

Gold - Resistance in the 1,670 - 1,680 area seem to be to much for gold to handle for now. I still expect a break below support at 1,629 soon to confirm a new decline towards the strong neckline support near 1,520. Only a clear break above 1,680 will lift the spirit a call for a rally towards the 1,780 - 1,795 area at least, but that is not my preferred view at this point.

Crude oil - Is trapped between support at 97.70 and resistance at 103.50. I still favor a downside resolution, but is clearly aware of the risk of a break above 103.50 and more importantly a break above long term resistance line at 106.65, which will open up the upside completely.

However as I said I'm looking for a downside resolution with a break below 99.40 and more importantly 97.70 calling for a new decline towards 92.50 again.