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Monday, January 9, 2012

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; Dow Industrial; Shanghai Comp.; Junk Bonds (JNK); Gold and Crude oil

USD-Index - Is fighting a bit with the resistance created by the two tops in late 2010 at 81.44 and in early 2011 at 81.14, but it should just be a matter of time before we break through for a continuation higher towards 82.60.
Long term I'm still looking for the Inverted S/H/S target in the 87 area to be tested.
EUR/USD - Has almost tested the short term target at 126.45. We might see a minor correction near term towards the 128.12 - 128.55 area, but overall the direction is down and is should be a matter of time before we take out 126.45 and more importantly 125.55, which will call for a continuation towards the 118 area and lower.
GBP/USD - Is again testing support and a clear break below 153.60 and more importantly 151.70 will call for the next serious decline towards 142.30 and below 135 longer term.
USD/CAD - Seems like we nailed this cross pretty good. All we need now is a break above 103.20 to confirm the thrust out of the "X" wave triangle and a rally higher towards the 117 area.
Short term we might see a minor pullback, but again it should be a question of time before we break above resistance at 103.20.
Dow Jones Industrial - Is facing strong overhead resistance. Yes we might see a move closer towards 12.500, but I still think we are in dangerous high areas here and we look for selling opportunities in this area or more conservative upon a break below 12.140.
Shanghai Composite - We have nailed this one pretty well too. We are already close to resistance at 2,240, but with the speed we have seen until now, I would not be overly surprised to see a mover higher towards 2,302 before the next real pressure to the downside is seen
Junk Bonds (JNK) - It's decision time. Overall the bigger picture is still dominated by the Diamond Top and should cause a break below the support line at 38.00 for the next serious decline towards at least 32.70 but longer term I looking for a move towards 31 and possibly even 25.50 again.
Gold - Should also be ready for its next decline. A break below 1,603 will indicate, that the next decline has begun. Until the break below 1,603 we seem to be locked inside the 1,603 - 1,623 range.
Crude Oil - Even though Iran is still spooking, I do think that strong overhead resistance in the 103.50 - 104 area will hold firm for a break below 98.50 to confirm the next attack on support at 92.50 and deeper.
However we must accept the risk of a sudden spike, if Iran does mean business and close the Hormuz strait. To be honest I don't think, that Iran will take this steep an walk into a conflict with the US, but we can never know for sure.

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