USD-Index - Is once again back testing the inverted S/H/S neckline. I still expect this neckline to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 80.70, which should spark the next rally towards at least 82.60.At no time should we see a move below 78.79 as that would question the possible inverted S/H/S pattern.
EUR/USD - The EUR gained strength as the year has begun with a note of "risk on", but we are still well within the falling trend in EUR/USD. Yes we could see a move towards the 131.30 - 131.65 area, but that should only provide a nice EUR-selling opportunity for the next decline towards the 127.45 - 126.45 area. (See the daily EUR/USD chart below).
Dow Jones Industrial - This will be my last yearly chart this time around. I do think the count I have presented here is valid and it does call for a much deeper decline towards 5,350 area in wave C. We are currently facing strong resistance in the 12,400 - 12,600 area, which I expect will turn us down through 11,735 again for a test of neckline support near 10,600.
S&P 500 - I do think we are headed towards resistance in the 1,292 - 1,299 area, but I still find these levels very lofty and think the market once again has become way to complacent. I would look for selling opportunities in this lofty area or wait for the more conservative break below support at 1,248.60 for the next decline towards strong neckline support near 1,100.
Shanghai Composite - I'm still looking for one more decline closer to the 2,100 area, that most likely will end the decline from 2,534 and call for a correction back towards the 2,240 area.
S&P 500 - I do think we are headed towards resistance in the 1,292 - 1,299 area, but I still find these levels very lofty and think the market once again has become way to complacent. I would look for selling opportunities in this lofty area or wait for the more conservative break below support at 1,248.60 for the next decline towards strong neckline support near 1,100.
Shanghai Composite - I'm still looking for one more decline closer to the 2,100 area, that most likely will end the decline from 2,534 and call for a correction back towards the 2,240 area. Longer term I'm still looking for much lower levels. Ultimately we should see a break below the bottom of wave [A] at 1,664.
TLT (20Y US Bonds) - Is having a lot of trouble up here at the 2008 top at 123.15. The rally since early 2011 is clearly loosing momentum and a break below support at 115.60 will call for a decline to important support at 109.80 and likely lower.
Gold - We have seen a nice rally from neckline support at 1,522, but we should soon meet strong resistance near 1,643, which easily could turn gold down again towards the neckline support.
TLT (20Y US Bonds) - Is having a lot of trouble up here at the 2008 top at 123.15. The rally since early 2011 is clearly loosing momentum and a break below support at 115.60 will call for a decline to important support at 109.80 and likely lower.
Gold - We have seen a nice rally from neckline support at 1,522, but we should soon meet strong resistance near 1,643, which easily could turn gold down again towards the neckline support.Longer term I looking for a decline towards support at 1,284 and maybe even towards support at 1,084, but we will take the coming decline step by step.
Crude Oil - has rally further than I expected and mostly due to fears about Iran. Yes this is a case of concern and if we rally much further (above 104.50) we might even see a continuation towards 114 - 115 area again and maybe even 123. A break above 104.50 is not my favorite call at this point, but we must be aware of the risk.
Crude Oil - has rally further than I expected and mostly due to fears about Iran. Yes this is a case of concern and if we rally much further (above 104.50) we might even see a continuation towards 114 - 115 area again and maybe even 123. A break above 104.50 is not my favorite call at this point, but we must be aware of the risk.Only a break below 98.36 will ease the upside pressure and call for a new decline towards 92.50 and below.
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