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Monday, January 23, 2012

Elliott wave on the Vix-index; DJI; DJT and S&P 500

Lets stay a little with the U.S. stock indices today.
I have been quite puzzled with the continued strength of these markets. The last time I saw something like this, was when FED orchestrated its QE 1 (it was not as extreme the second time around). All indicators was flashing the red light, but stock indices kept going up. It's is same this time around, but this time it's not FED doing the QE, this time it's QE European style orchestrated by ECB and the LTRO-program. These programs might do the job in the beginning, but they never last and when turn comes, and believe me it will come, the decline will just be much faster and deeper than it else would have been.
Lets look at some charts and see what red lights we have flashing.

VIX Index - We are now in the low 18 area as expected Friday. More important we broke and closed below the lower Bollinger Band, which is a warning of an imminent bottom of some kind. We still need a clear break above the wedge resistance-line near 22.50 to confirm an important bottom in place and a return to 34.75.Dow Jones Industrial - Took out resistance at 12.660 with trouble at all. That of cause should be of concern and might force us higher towards 12,762 as first target and maybe even higher towards 12,754 and 12,876, but be careful if we break back below former resistance at 12,660 as the break could have been a failure-break.
However we need a break below 12,463 and more importantly 12,311 to confirm, that an important top is in place for a much deeper decline.
Dow Jones Transportation - Here too a large Should-Head-Shoulder top is forming. We might see a move slightly higher towards 5,387, but any break below former resistance now support at 5,066 will be a warning, that an important top is in place and a decline towards the neckline support near 3,975 might be developing.
S&P 500 - Haven't broken above its resistance line from late 2007 to mid-2011 yet. I doubt it will, but we must respect the uptrend for now. That said a break below support at 1,293 will indicate, that an important top is in place for a much deeper decline towards the neckline support near 1,100 longer term.
The triangle shape marked by the black lines will apex (the two lines meet) within the next couple of days, that often marks the end of a move.

1 comment:

  1. the wedge on vix is getting to the apex.expect a break out very soon.

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