USD-Index - The inverted S/H/S neckline held as expected and a break above 80.70 should mark the next rally towards resistance at 82.60. The inverted S/H/S target is in the 87.50 area.
EUR/USD - Couldn't even make it to the 131 area before loosing steam. We should now be headed towards the next support area between 127.45 - 126.45 (closer to 126.45).The risk on start of the year finished very quickly. We will see these risk on periods from time to time, but they should be pretty short lived. Not necessarily as this period was.
AUD/USD - Yes it looks like a triangle, but I don't think it's a triangle in Elliott wave terms, meaning it's a wave 4 calling for one more new rally above 110.80. My preferred count is that we saw an important top and the ending of wave [C] at 110.80, where wave [C] was equal to wave [A] and we are now in the early stages of a major decline towards the 85 area and more likely the high 79 area. Longer term I'm looking for a continuation lower towards the low 70 area (see my yearly post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on.html
AUD/USD - Yes it looks like a triangle, but I don't think it's a triangle in Elliott wave terms, meaning it's a wave 4 calling for one more new rally above 110.80. My preferred count is that we saw an important top and the ending of wave [C] at 110.80, where wave [C] was equal to wave [A] and we are now in the early stages of a major decline towards the 85 area and more likely the high 79 area. Longer term I'm looking for a continuation lower towards the low 70 area (see my yearly post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on.htmlShort term we could make it back to the 104.25 - 105.45 as long as support at 98.80 holds firm. However I find the current price-levels pretty lofty and would rather be selling up here, than bet on 105.45 being seen.
USD/CAD - Here we can see an Elliott wave triangle, but in this case it's an triangle "X" wave. I expect this triangle will ultimately break out to the top-side calling for a rally towards the 117 - 118 area. Therefore the current level should mark a low risk buying area, with a low risk stop-loss below support at 100.49.
S&P 500 - We could still see a move higher towards the 1,292 - 1,299 area, but we are at very lofty levels here and at the same time the market has become very complacent, which isn't a healthy cocktail, but we need a break below 1,248.60 to confirm a move lower towards the 1,100 neckline support.
Shanghai Composite - We are headed for support in the 2,100 area, which should end an expanding diagonal and set the stage for a corrective move back towards the 2,240 area.
Gold - almost made it back to resistance near 1,643. Is a top in place? it could be, but we need a break below the steep rising minor channel at 1,608, which would call for a decline towards 1,565 and possibly even lower.
Silver - It has been a while since we have looked at silver. I have presented the long term count I favor above. As can be seen, an important top was seen just below 50.00 and we are now in a correction, where we have already corrected 50% of the rally from 3.51 to 49.53, but I would not be surprised to see the 61.8% retracement target at 21.13 tested fairly soon.
USD/CAD - Here we can see an Elliott wave triangle, but in this case it's an triangle "X" wave. I expect this triangle will ultimately break out to the top-side calling for a rally towards the 117 - 118 area. Therefore the current level should mark a low risk buying area, with a low risk stop-loss below support at 100.49.
S&P 500 - We could still see a move higher towards the 1,292 - 1,299 area, but we are at very lofty levels here and at the same time the market has become very complacent, which isn't a healthy cocktail, but we need a break below 1,248.60 to confirm a move lower towards the 1,100 neckline support.
Shanghai Composite - We are headed for support in the 2,100 area, which should end an expanding diagonal and set the stage for a corrective move back towards the 2,240 area.
Gold - almost made it back to resistance near 1,643. Is a top in place? it could be, but we need a break below the steep rising minor channel at 1,608, which would call for a decline towards 1,565 and possibly even lower.
Silver - It has been a while since we have looked at silver. I have presented the long term count I favor above. As can be seen, an important top was seen just below 50.00 and we are now in a correction, where we have already corrected 50% of the rally from 3.51 to 49.53, but I would not be surprised to see the 61.8% retracement target at 21.13 tested fairly soon. Only a break above resistance at 32.01 and more importantly 33.63 will ease the downside pressure.
Crude oil - We are still holding below important resistance at 114.50 and it actually looks as some kind of top is in the making. However we still need a break below support at 98.36 to confirm the top and a decline towards support at 92.50.
Crude oil - We are still holding below important resistance at 114.50 and it actually looks as some kind of top is in the making. However we still need a break below support at 98.36 to confirm the top and a decline towards support at 92.50.A break above 114.50 will set up a continuation towards the 114 - 115 area, but this is not my preferred scenario.
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