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Thursday, January 12, 2012

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; Dow Industrial; Gold and Crude oil

EUR/USD - Not much to add here. We have two possible short term counts. I slightly favor the count calling for new lows below 126.60 soon for the next decline towards strong support near 125.45.
The other count is, that we have only seen wave A and B in a flat correction, which will call for one more mini rally into the 128.20 - 128.50 area, before the next move down is seen.
GBP/USD - Has broken down from support at 153.60 and we are now headed for the next support at 151.70. If support at 151.70 gives away too the downside springs wide open for a decline towards the 142 area.
There is an option we have to consider at this point, which is, that wave "D" of the triangle finds its end near 151.70, which will call for a wave "E" rally towards 157.60 and maybe even 159.50. That's not my preferred count, but we must be aware of the possibility.
Dow Jones Industrial - Decision time is getting closer and closer. I still think the upside is very limited at this point and that we should soon see a break below the minor support line at 12,399 for a decline towards 11,735 and a break below here confirms the top for a move toward the 10,610 area, where we find strong neckline support.
Could we see one more rally above 12,514? Yes, but it will not last long and you should be aware of a failure break to the upside, which will turn us down hard.
Gold - Here too we are close to a decision point. I do favor a top soon and a break below 1,629 for a decline back to the strong neckline support near 1,520. Longer term I still expect this neckline to be broken for a continuation towards 1,431 and even 1,289.
Crude oil - The overall picture is the same. We are at or very close to the decision point, meeting resistance here in the 103.30 - 104.60 area and even strong just above at 106.80. I do expect these resistances levels to protect the upside for a break below 98.80 confirming a decline towards support at 92.50 and a break here will cause a much deeper decline.
Still we have to be aware, that an escalation between the US and Iran could cause a moon spike in oil prices, so don't enter a short position without a protective stop. Money management is key to your success

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