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Friday, January 6, 2012

Elliott Wave and technical analysis of the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; USD/CAD; Dow Industrials; Shanghai Comp.; TLT; Gold; Copper and Crude oil

USD-Index - We finally got the close over resistance at 80.70, which should open the way for a continuation higher towards the next resistance at 82.60.
The Inverted S/H/S target is at 87.50, so don't get fouled, by the corrections on the way higher.
EUR/USD - Is headed for support in the 126.45 - 127.45 area. I do expect a move closer to 126.45, than a temporary stop at 127.45.
Longer term we should see a much deeper decline, but we do have some very strong supports, that have to be cleared first. The first is at 126.45 and then one, which is now at 125.45 and rising.
USD/JPY - I'm not at all sure of the count shown above, but it's a valid count. However we soon need to break above the long term falling trend line resistance at 77.95, if not I'm sure we will see a new challenge of the bottom at 75.50 and most likely a continuation deeper towards 74 as next support.
USD/CAD - Has broken above the minor steep falling resistance line, which does add faith to my preferred count, that we saw the end of wave e and X at 100.72 for a thrust out of the "X" wave triangle soon.
Longer term I expect a move higher towards the 117 - 118 area.
Dow Industrial - I have problem with my charts of S&P 500, so for now I will switch to the Dow Jones Industrial instead.
Is facing strong overhead resistance near the 12,500 area, which I expect will turn us down through 12,221 and more importantly 12,140 which will confirm, that wave 2 is over and wave 3 down has begun. (See my long term count here http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_04.html)
Shanghai Composite - Did make a small new low at 2,133.75 today and has closed back over the small step resistance line. That tells us, that wave v of the ending expanding diagonal is done a little before the ideal target near 2,100. We should now look for a return towards 2,240 in the coming days. This correction does not alter my long term view, which ultimately calls for a break below wave [A] at 1,664.
TLT (20Y US bonds) - Seems to have broken down and could be headed for strong support in the 109 area. However we need confirmation, that the break is valid and need to see a break below 115.80 to confirm the break.
The big question to be asked right now is if we are looking at some kind of collapse like we saw in late 2008 and early 2009? It can't be ruled out. If we does there is only be one place to hide and that would be is USD.
Gold - Is also facing strong overhead resistance here. We could see Gold rise a little more, but overall the risk is to the downside again for a new test of support near 1,522.
Longer term I'm looking for a deeper correction towards 1,289 and possibly even the 1,089 area.
Copper - Has meet resistance and I expect a break below the minor support at 336.70 soon to confirm a new decline towards strong neckline support near 306 and a break below here will open for a decline towards the 131 area. Of cause there will be some tough hurdles along the way to the S/H/S target.
Crude Oil - Is banging its head against strong resistance too. I still favor this resistance will hold and turn Crude prices down again through 98.20 and more importantly 92 calling for a new decline towards 75.
That said we have to be aware that an escalation between the US and Iran could force Crude prices up towards the 114 - 115 area in a state of panic.

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