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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on AUD/USD; NZD/USD and some Uranium stocks

Today I will look at some currency crosses and then step a little out of my normal comfort zone and look at some individual Uranium stocks.

AUD/USD - Is just below pretty strong resistance and is posing a low risk trading opportunity here. A short AUD position with a stop just above 107.55 is very close to as good a risk/reward trade as you get them in this cross.
Even if this should turn out to be a wave 4-triangle, which I very much doubt, then we still need wave-E of the triangle to form, meaning we as wave-E develops could lower the stop to just above or at the entry point of the short Aussie position.NZD/USD - Is in pretty much the same position as AUD/USD. We are facing strong overhead resistance near 80.40 and stretching up to 81. Selling near or in this area will pose a low risk opportunity with at stop just above 82.45.
I will look for a break below 78.60 and more importantly 77.65 to confirm the ending of the rising wedge calling for a decline towards at least 74.60.Cameco (CCJ) - Here we can see a nice break above the falling trend line and the 100 day moving average. I would not be surprised to see a back-test of the broken resistance line now acting as support near 18.75, but that should be a low risk buying opportunity with a stop just below 17.
The potential should be a move towards 23, but I would expect a move closer to the 29-area longer term.Uranium Resources (URRE) - Is not as clear as Cameco, but a break above resistance at 0.86, should lift us to at least 0.95 and more likely towards strong resistance near 1.10.
Stop should be placed just below 0.785 when 0.86 breaks.Uranium Participation (U.TO) A Canadian stock - Has broken very nicely to the upside from a long base formation calling for a rally towards 7.60 and possibly even 8.50.
Here to I would be surprised to see a back-test of the broken resistance line at 6.00 now acting as support. I would have a stop just below 5.70.Laramide Resources (LAM.TO) Canadian stock too - Here too we have seen a very nice break above the resistance line at 0.80 and should longer term see a move towards 1.20, but we could easily see a move towards 1.50.
Again we could see a back-test of the broken resistance line at 0.80 now acting as support. Place stop on any long position just below 0.72.

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