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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and AUD/USD

We will stay in the currency world today.


EUR/USD - Still fighting with the large red Pitchfork mid-line and at the same time staying within the minor red-dotted Pitchfork, which keeps the pressure down towards the the blue channel support line near the 126.45 area.


My favorite scenario is, that we will eventually break below 126.45 for a much deeper decline, but for now lets see, what happens as we close in on support near 126.45.

USD/JPY - Wasn't able to break above the long term falling trend line, which has turned us down towards support in the 76.44 - 76.55 area. This area needs to hold firm or we will be looking at a deeper decline closer to 74.00.
Only a break above the long term falling downtrend line at 78.05 will ease the downside pressure.


GBP/USD - Should soon see downside pressure added for a thrust down towards the 140 area. I do believe my original triangle count is the right one, but there is a possibility, that the triangle still is building, but the final outcome will be the same - A powerful thrust to the downside.


AUD/USD (Yearly) - I forgot to show you the yearly picture of this major cross yesterday. But as can be seen here too we saw a long legged Doji over the last year (open and close of the year almost identical). This is a reversal pattern and we should see pressure build as the new year progresses.


The first target is near 98.00, but we should see a decline towards at least the mid-line of the rising channel near 90.00. A clear break below 90.00 will turn focus towards the channel support line near the low 70 area.


Longer term I'm even more bearish on the Aussie dollar, but lets just leave it there for now.

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