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Monday, April 29, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

I'm still in the favor of the triangle scenario as long as support at 126.43 and more importantly support at 124.87 protects the downside. Ideally the c-leg of the triangle is at its terminating point and we will see a break above  minor resistance at 128.09 soon, which will confirm that the d-leg of the triangle is unfolding for a move higher towards 129.89. Only a clear break below support at 126.43 and acceleration of the price-action towards the downside will indicate, that we already have seen the top of wave 5 and (1) at 131.12 and that wave (2) is unfolding towards at least 118.73.

EUR/NZD

We could have seen the bottom of wave c of ii at 1.5236, but to confirm that we need a break above 1.5361 and more importantly a break above 1.5395, which will confirm a continuation higher towards 1.5569 and higher. At this point only a break below 1.5255 will indicate that wave c of ii still is ongoing and that we should expect more downside price-action towards 1.5188. However if we have not seen the bottom already we soon will.
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4 comments:

  1. tieusorosApril 29, 2013 at 8:42 AM

    Hi EWS,

    EJ: I see that wave i is shorter than wave iii in ending diagonal( WAVE 5), is that valid in elliot wave?
    EZ: in wave ii I see that c is longer than 161.8% of a in a Flat correct so be careful

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  2. Elliott wave surferApril 29, 2013 at 9:24 AM

    Hi Nguyen,

    To my knowledge there are no demands to wave three being shorter than wave one. The only demand is that wave three is not the shortest. So in my view the ending diagonal pattern is still valid.

    Yes wave c of ii became 2 times longer than wave a of ii. Wave ii can be very tricky as it's allowed to correct 100% of wave i, but not be a tick longer.
    However wave ii corrected 61.8% of wave i so I feel pretty confident in my count, but would of cause like to see some confirmation, that my count is correct, which a break above 1.5395 and more importantly a break above 1.5440 will provide.

    That said I agree with you that we should always protect our selfs with a protective stop, which would minimize a potential loss.

    Kind regards
    EWS

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    Replies
    1. tieusorosApril 30, 2013 at 4:34 AM

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  3. UnknownApril 29, 2013 at 11:04 PM

    Hi EWS

    Good work...

    ReplyDelete

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