It is still undecided whether we are in a triangle consolidation or we have seen the final top for the entire rally from 94.10 to 131.12. The best fit to my scenario will be, that we are in a triangle consolidation and needs one final thrust towards the upside for a rally close to 135.47 to finish the entire rally from 94.10. That said, we must accept the fact that a top already could be in place, but to confirm that outcome we need a break below 126.43 and more importantly a break below 124.71, which confirms that wave (2) is developing for a decline towards at least 118.73.
We have seen a small break below support, which does open the possibility for a slightly deeper decline in wave c, of the expanded flat correction, towards 1.5188. That said a break above 1.5320 will weaken the downside momentum and a break above 1.5409 confirms that wave c is finished and wave iii higher is developing. As wave ii is an expanded flat I'm more than convinced, that wave iii will be an extended wave and at least 1.618 times wave i, but it could easily be both 2 times and 2.618 times longer than wave i. However, for now I'm looking for a bottom of wave c near 1.5188 or upon a break above 1.5320.
Hi EWS great analysis and have a great weekend
ReplyDeleteBestRegards JT.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteI am closely watching and already long on EUR/NZD pair as per your analysis. I am long on break above 1.5320 and the follow up seems quite impulsive in nature giving a feeling that wave 3 is now on.
I would like to learn on what basis you had come up with 1.5320 and 1.5409 levels.
Have a good weekend.