Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With a test of 130.53 my ideal wave iii of 5 target at 130.90 is within striking distance. As long as minor support at 129.37 keeps protecting the downside, we should ideally see a move closer to our target, but we are very close to a top and a break below 129.37 would be the first indication, that wave iii of 5 is over and wave iv of 5 taking over. The first target for wave iv of 5 will be at 127.89. As wave ii of 5 was a very deep and relatively simple structure, wave iv of 5 should be a complex and small correction, ideally it will be a triangle, but time will tell.

EUR/NZD

Wave ii has corrected exactly 100% of wave i, which is allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle, but is a rare occurrence. It should also be mentioned, that if wave ii had broken below wave i with just one tick my bullish count would have been invalidated. If wave ii have bottomed at 1.5173, then we should see a break above 1.5228 and more importantly a break above 1.5248 soon, which will be the first good indication, that a bottom might be in place. To confirm the bottom, however, we need a break above 1.5333, which would call for a rally back to 1.5521 in a perfect double bottom. That said we must be aware, that any break below 1.5173 will invalidate my current bullish count, but even if it occurred I still think that the potential downside pressure is very limited.