Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With a high at exactly 130.90 my ideal target has been hit and we expects wave iv of 5 to develop. Wave iv of 5 is expected to be a relatively small and complex correction. Ideally it will be a triangle, but only time will tell. The ideal target for wave iv of 5 is at 127.89, but the area stretching from 127.70 - 128.40 is one big support-area. Short term I expect minor resistance at 130.81 will protect the upside for a break below 130.07 and more importantly a break below 129.75 that will confirm that wave iv of 5 is indeed unfolding. That said, as long as support at 129.75 has not been broken we must accept the possibility of further upside pressure, but we do think that the possible upside potential is very limited from here.

EUR/NZD

The break below 1.5173 invalidated my bullish count. I have changed our count slightly, marking the bottom at 1.5173 as wave iii of c and the top at 1.5521 as wave iv of c and the decline to 1.5080 was most likely wave v of c. As can be seen on the chart above the price quickly turned once 1.5080 was hit and performed a morning star candle, which is a sign of exhaustion. However we need more prof, that a bottom is indeed in place and a break above 1.5224 we be the first indication, that the test of 1.5080 was indeed the bottom, while a break above 1.5373 is needed to confirm the bottom and confirm the next powerful rally higher.

To be honest the new count for wave c is a much better fit, but some times one can't see the Wood for trees....