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Monday, April 22, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

We have seen a slow continuation higher and with the break above 129.73 we should see a new high above the former top at 131.12. That said, I do not expect that this possible new top we cover much new ground and  could well stall already at 131.28. Short term I expect a minor set-back towards 129.48 before the last rally higher to the ideal target at 131.28. However, we are fast closing in on the top of the entire rally from 94.10 and I will continue to look for signs that this rally is over and a big correction in wave 2 sets in either from 131.28 or upon a break below 128.78.

EUR/NZD

With the failure to break above 1.5577 it is still an open question whether we have seen the bottom of wave ii at 1.5408 or not. I still think that the odds slightly favor the bottom-scenario, but I will wait patiently for the confirmation, which a break above 1.5546 and more importantly a break above 1.5577 will be. Once resistance at 1.5577 is cleared we should see a powerful rally towards at least 1.5683 and likely even higher towards 1.5818. Short term I'm looking for one last small decline to 1.5439 and maybe even 1.5426 before the next real upside pressure kicks in, but it will take a break above 1.5546 to indicate that wave ii is over and wave iii is developing.

5 comments:

  1. Hi EWS!

    Please forgive my ignorance: What is supposed to happen after wave 5 is set? What comes after a set of 5 waves? Will it be a set of 3 pointing down? And after that, will a new set of 5 waves rise up the EURJPY? I have search for all this with no success, maybe you can throw a bit of light, please

    Thank you for the great work, by the way!!!

    Have a great monday

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  2. Hi EWS ,

    If possible i would like to learn how did you get the following values 129.73 and 131.28 . Also how did you predict based on elliot wave there will be a possible minor pull back before a new high is set ?
    Please let us know during your free time as i am a keen learner and fan of your work.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Potxotxo

    I will make a new post, where you can see, what the Elliott Wave Principle preditcs will happen once wave 5 in done. On the pictogram the full five wave rally is called circle 1, but it could as well be, that it is circle A, but the outcome will be the same.
    Once circle wave 1 or A is done we should see a decline in circle wave 2 or B to at least wave 4 of one lessor degree, which in this case will be down to 118.73. Other possible target will be 117.09 (38.2% correction); 112.68 (50% correction) and 108.28 (61.8% correction) of circle wave 1 or A.

    Once circle wave 2 or B is finished I will be looking for the next rally higher in a new five wave rally.

    Hope it gives you an idea of what to expect for the next many month if not years ahead.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Kiran,

    I will make an update on how I obtained the targets and why I expected a minor correction before the last rally either later today or tomorrow.

    Hope it's okay?

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanx EWS!!!

    All of this is very helpful for me!!

    Have a wonderful Tuesday

    Potxotxo

    ReplyDelete