The break below my invalidation point at 126.03 we are left with two options. 1: The entire five wave rally rally since 94.10 ended with the test of 131.12 and if this is the case we are looking for a large corrective wave 2 down to at least 118.73. Looking at the decline from 131.12 is does have impulsive characteristics, which would be what we are looking for in a simple zig-zag correction. The second option is that some kind of ending diagonal is developing calling for one more high above 131.12. I do not favor this options, as ending diagonal is made up of five three wave moves, which does not fit this the rally from 118.73. The reason why I'm hesitating a bit calling the top is, that the EWO-indicator does not show us any significant divergence, which I would normally expect at the end of a rally of this degree.
My description of the rally higher yesterday has been a perfect match. With the slight break above the 1.5512 top confirms, that an important bottom is in place at 1.5080 and that a new major rally is developing. We have wave i of this new major rally in place and are now looking for wave ii. This wave ii should correct between 50% and 61.8% of wave i, which would mean a decline towards the 1.5263 - 1.5319 area before the next rally higher. However, we must remember that second waves are allowed to correct even more of wave i. Once this wave ii correction is over we should see and even more powerful rally high towards at least 1.6100, but I would not be surprised to see an even bigger rally towards 1.6578. But for now we should remain focused on the wave ii correction towards the 1.5263 - 1.5319 area.
I noticed FB took out 26.40.
ReplyDeleteDo you think FB has topped too?
It had five waves up.
Is it possible wave of 119.07 which count iii is the beginning of wave 5 and the previous movement was W,X,Y?http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/170612/eurjpy-d1-isigroup-ltd
ReplyDeletethis eurjpy pattern maybe a inverted triangle
ReplyDeleteHi Todd,
ReplyDeleteThis is only a minor top of wave i of 5 and we are currently in wave ii of 5 and once finished we should see the next poweful rally higher.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Diversanta,
ReplyDeleteCurrently I like your count better than the once I have presented.
But take care if we see a break below 126.00 as that would indicate that we have seen an important high at 131.12.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Zink,
ReplyDeleteIt's a possibility. Right now I don't favor that outcome, but that does not mean you can't be right.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi,
ReplyDeleteIn EURNZD why wave 2 is a triagle???? I remember that wave 2 never a triagle in elliott wave.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for your journal, it's very useful.
But can you pls update your view on Brent Crude.
Best regards,
Roman
Hi EW,
ReplyDeleteAs your ideal, 1: The entire five wave rally rally since 94.10 ended with the test of 131.12 and if this is the case we are looking for a large corrective wave 2 down to at least 118.73
Do you think wave 5 is lack of time? As I known all waves in elliott usually atleast 1/3 timely the wave before.
Hi Nguyen,
ReplyDeleteRe EUR/NZD I totally agree with your point about wave 2 never can be a triangle and this of cause also is the case here. I should have change the labling a long time ago to wave A and the expanded triangle wave C. That said the final outcome is the same. A major rally higher i wave C should come next.
Re: EUR/JPY I don't know any rule about a wave being at least 1/3 of the prior wave. You may be absolutly rigth in you view, but I just don't know about it.
In my view form is more important than anything else and we can count a five wave rally from the 94,10 low, so we are getting close to the top of wave 1 or A, but if we have seen it yet. I'm not so sure and I think my post today confirms my hesitation to call the top at this point in time.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi again Nguyen,
ReplyDeleteI just wanted to say, that if you have any material regarding the time rule you mentioned I will appriciate it greatly if you could send it to me on my e-mail:
elliott.wave.surfer@hotmail.com
Thank you very much.
EWS
Hi EWS,
DeleteThis rule I learn when study the book "Mastering elliott wave- Glenn Neely " . I think this book is one of the best about elliott wave. You can download this book here :
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx0aWV1c29yb3NmeHxneDo3YzA3ODE2YzM3MTE4MDg5
PM: You can see time rule in chapter 4
DeleteHi EWS!
ReplyDeleteI see you only analyze EURJPY and EURZND. I suggest you should add GBPUSD in this time. GU just break the big B wave ( triagle ) and very clear in wave 2 of a big C wave . We will have big oppotunity when wave 2 end :)
Hi
ReplyDeleteIn the case EURJPY I suggest new option that wave 3 of 5 is not complete yet and the decline from 131.12 to 125.01 is only wave 4 of wave 3 of wave 5. In this case it will not invalid the high of wave 1 of 5. It is clearly when study in chart 1H
Hi Nguyen,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for the information. I will look into the time-matter.
Your EUR/JPY count is clearly a possibility.
Regarding GBP/USD, I would like to add it to my daily update, but I simply don't have the time. I will gladly look at GBP/USD from time to time, but presently no daily update is possibly, sorry.
Kind regards
EWS