Massive Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top might have been activated, with a target near 2.0. Short term I would like to see a break below 2.99 and even better a break below 2.72 as that would confirm the decline to the S/H/S target at 2.0.
If we does see a decline to 2.0 in copper, that will mean that the global economy is slowing down and it will put pressure on stocks and likely lift bonds (lower interest rates) again.
Time for a correction in wave iv before the last and final rally higher? We are getting close to an important top both short term and long term. Before we begin to call gloom and doom over the stock markets I think we need one more lift higher, but it will be very prudent to move the protective stop in close at this point I would call a top, if we does see a break below 13.784
Facebook
We have seen a very deep wave ii of 5, but we have likely seen the bottom or is very close to see the bottom in wave ii just slightly below 25.16, but no break below 24.73 is allowed. That should present a very low risk trade buying with a stop at 24.70. However, at this point we would love to see a break above 27.80 and more importantly a break above 28.09 as that would confirm the next powerful rally higher towards at least 31.45. As a target for wave 5 I'm looking for a move to 34.10.
Hit my target at 391 yesterday and we could well have seen the bottom of the correction from 703.86.
I would expect a rally to at least 594.25 to develop soon, if it hasn't already begun. That should be a nice rally of at least 51% from here. That said we now need some prof, that a bottom might be in place and the first indication will be a rally above 405 and more importantly a break above 427 that would call for the rally towards 594.25.
on FB, i thought we may have formed a small 5 wave move from $25.15 to $25.96 and are currently forming a flat correction with A ending at $25.58 and we are working on the B wave or potentially the C wave right now. For the 5 way move higher, you would have to view Wave 2 as an irregular correction ($25.37 - $25.69 - $25.33). I am using nasdaq data so not sure if the BATS data is a little different.
ReplyDeleteHi Hedgiefundman,
ReplyDeleteI think we are on the same pace here, but are looking at different time-frames, which can confuse the Picture a bit.
When I look at the short time-frame wave (i) for me went from 25.15 to 25.69, the wave (ii) from 25.69 Down to 25.34 A nice 61.8% correction of wave (i) and we are now in wave (iii) of which we have seen ((i)) from 25.34 to 25.96 and wave ((ii)) from 25.96 to 25.59 and we are now working on wave ((iii)) of (iii).
I think you will get into trouble if you Count wave (i) from 25.15 to 25.96 because that will leave you with a three wave rally.
My advice to you would be not to zoom in to much, but stick with a time-frame, that will give you a close but not to close a view.
I personally like the 1 hour and 4 hour time-frame on Facebook as it leaves me with some nice waves and it's pretty easy to Count.
The only thing we don't want to see is a break below 24.73 as that would mean a break below the start of wave i, which is not allowed under the EWP and we would like to see a break above 27.18 and more importantly a break above 28.09 for the NeXT powerful rally higher.
Kind regards
EWS
Thx. Zooming into the 1 minute is probably counter productive!
ReplyDeleteHi hedgiefundman,
ReplyDeleteIn my view the 1 min. chart is way to difficulte to keep track of the count. You could use it, if you are looking for confirmation of a break, but count waves for the medium term (weeks ahead) from the 1 min. is very difficulte.
Kind regards
EWS