The break below support at 128.78 once again increases the odds for a top being in place already at 131.12. However, we need a break below 126.43 to confirm, that the rally from 124.87 only was in three waves and therefore only a correction. This tug of war between bulls and bears will soon find its winner. If the bulls win we still need one last rally above the former high at 131.12, but the possible upside should be very limited. If the bears win we will see a break below 126.43 and likely an acceleration towards the downside as long position are closed fast. No matter if the bulls or the bears are winning this tug of war, we have a complete five wave rally of the 94.10 low to the high of 131.12. Even if we does see more last high we should be very close to the top and should prepare our self for wave (2) to take over. Wave (2) should at least take us down to the bottom of wave 4 at 118.73, but the decline in wave (2) could be deeper.
We are currently seeing a break above the channel resistance-line near 1.5577. If this break is confirmed my bullish call is confirmed and we should see acceleration as wave iii progresses for a rally towards at least 159.17 and more likely higher towards 1.6207. However as long as resistance at 1.5577 protects the upside we could risk another set-back in an even more complex correction, but the would take a break below 154.87 to confirm that this even more complex correction, than we have already seen, is taking place and a new move towards 1.5405 and maybe down to 1.5375 should be seen.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteAfter checking again the option wave 5 is a contract ED as we discuss I see the wrong thing that wave 1 ( of 5 ) 5 is not the longest wave so this option not correct .However, there are many things not clearly if the top is 131.10 such as the the wave 5 is too short about time and 131.10 is not reach the resistant area ( 135.75-140) so I dont think the upside is end. After analyze the chart again I see that we need to move the end of wave 4 to 119.10 ( 04/03/2013), from 119.10 to 131.10 is wave 1 of 5 and it maybe the longest wave of an ED.Thanks
Hi Nguyen,
ReplyDeleteThe count you mention is clearly a possibility. So we will just to wait and see to the picture clears.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Ews!
ReplyDeleteCan you tell us something about silver? I think we have seen a triangle correction, from the 22.0 region. What do you think about it?
And how can we calculate the next target zone, if it is a triangle and the end of somekind of wave 4?
Thank you,
CJ
Hi CJ,
DeleteI'm very busy at the moment, so I don't know when I will get the time to look at silver, but I promise that I will look at it no later than the weekend. Hope it's okay?
Kind regards
EWS
Its ok, thank you :)
Delete