Translate

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Wave 4 likely complete at 1,677

 



Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Wave 4 likely complete at 1,677

Gold has been in a descending correction since the 2,075 peak in early August 2020. I count this decline as a wave 4 correction, which means we still have wave 5 higher to come. 

In my view wave 4 completed with the test of 1,677 and wave 5 is now developing and should ultimately break clearly above the former peak at 2,075. The cycles also confirms that a important low should be in place and the upside will be the dominating in the weeks/months to come. 

In the commodity universe wave 5 extends and becomes equal in length to the start of wave 1 to the peak of wave 3 which gives us a target at 2,704, but we could easily see wave 5 extend well beyond that target towards the 161.8% extension target at 3,339. 

Short-term, I would like to see resistance at 1,765 break as a solid indication that wave 4 now is complete and wave 5 is developing. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends 

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 Index - This could be bad...

 



Elliott Wave Analysis of the S&P 500 Index - This could be bad... 

The trendline support for March 2020 low is being tested and on the hourly chart, we first saw a small S/H/S top now followed by a potential invers Cup with Handle and a break below the neckline at 3,808 could spark the S&P 500 lower to 3,665 and potentially much lower. 

Both the long-term and the shorter term counts all indicates a more serious top could be in place, but we need more clear evidence before being able to conclude this is in fact the case. So be on the outlook for a break below support at 3,694 that will indicate a top is in place. 

We have all the ingrediency, but will the be mixed correctly? Time will show...

Remember the trend and patience are your friends 

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Descending trendline from 2011 finally conquered

 


Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee - Descending trendline from 2011 finally conquered 

Coffee has finally broken the 10 year descending trendline dating back to May 2011. The break completes a super longer term and super complex wave IV correction that began way back in April 1977 and we should now be looking for an extended rally in wave V to way above the wave III peak at 339.90.

Short-term we should expect resistance near 146.95 will be able to cap the upside for a temporary correction towards 116.50 before the next strong rally, that is expected to break clearly above 146.95 for a rally towards 219 and longer-term above the wave III peak at 339.90

We are still in the infancy for this new impulsive rally, but ultimately it should pick up momentum for much higher levels. 

Remember that the trend and patience are your friends


Friday, February 12, 2021

Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper - Copper is peaking after a nice run

 


Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper - Copper is peaking after a nice run

After bottoming at 1.97 in March Copper has seen a nice strong run, but is now late in the cycle of the first impulsive run higher. 

The five wave rally of the 1.97 low has been made up off an extended first wave. Calling for equality in length between wave i and wave iii through to the peak of wave v which calls for a peak at 3.9535 from where a more prolonged correction should be expected. 

The ideal target for the correction in 2 is seen at the top of wave i calling for a decline to 2.9930 from where wave 3 can take  over for the next powerful run higher. 

For now let's focus of the final move closer to the 3.9535 target and the correction to follow. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends  

Huge S/H/S bottom in Litecoin


 Huge S/H/S bottom in Litecoin

While Bitcoin and Ethereum already has taken off and eclipsed the 2018 highs. Litecoin is lagging only trading near USD 182, but that is about to change. 

Over the last 3 years Litecoin/USD has formed a huge Shoulder/Head/Shoulder bottom with a neckline at 178.70. Litecoin closed above this neckline resistance for the first time yesterday activating the bottom-formation for a rally to the S/H/S target at 324.63 - Pretty close to the 2018 peak at 357. 

So it's time to board the ship for a nice cruise higher towards the 324 target. 

Remember the trend and patience are your friends 

Thursday, February 4, 2021

Ethereum/USD - Huge Cup With Handle activated

 


Ethereum/USD - Huge Cup With Handle activated

Ethereum has broken clearly above the Cup with handle neck-line at 1,385 which has activated the huge formation for a continuation higher towards the formation-objective at 2,674. The way to measure the target of a cup with handle is to measure from the bottom of the formation to the top of the formation and add the distance to the break-out point, which in this case gives a objective at 2,674.

The neckline at 1,385 will act a strong support in case a back-test is needed before the next part of the uptrend takes place.

Remember the trend and patience are your friends

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Expanded flat wave ii correction near completion


Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500 - Expanded flat wave ii correction near completion

On January 22 I called for a completion of the ending diagonal (You can see that post by clicking here). On January 27 the ending diagonal support-line was broken near 3,815 indicating the completion of the formation that has been building since October 2020. 

The decline following the break below the ending diagonal support-line is in five waves indicating more downside pressure to come after a correction in wave ii. This wave ii correction has developed into an expanded flat, this indicates an extended decline should be expected in wave iii. 

The first extension target for wave iii is seen at 3,588 followed by 3,550. 

Short-term a break below minor support at 3,824 will indicate the completion of wave ii and that wave iii lower to at least 3,588 is unfolding. 

Stay tuned for renewed downside pressure soon. 

Remember that the trend and patience are your friends