Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 4 correction is ongoing

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave 4 correction is ongoing 

EUR/JPY broke out of the 12 year triangle in December 2020 and has since rallied nicely to test resistance at 164.17 which marked the 161.8% extension of wave 1. With wave 3 in place I'm looking for a more prolonged correction in wave 4 and ultimately a decline to test support at 151.67 before wave 5 takes over and pushes EUR/JPY to new highs and ideally a rally towards 195.43 where wave [A] and [C] will be equal in length. 

  

Elliott Wave Analysis of the US 10Y Yield - Has likely peaked with the test of 4.59

Elliott Wave Analysis of the US 10Y Yield - Has likely peaked with the test of 4.59

In my March 1'st post I called for a rally towards 4.48% and expected a peak nearby. We have now see the 10Y US Treasury bonds run to a high of 4.59% and I expect that we have seen wave B peak and wave C now should take over for a decline towards support near 3.23 from where the next strong rally is expected. 

We will need to see a break below support at 4.34% to confirm that wave B has peaked and wave C is in motion. 

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Next upside target seen at 3,100

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - Next upside target seen at 3,100

If gold closes the month of March above 1,972 then gold should be headed for 3,100 as the next upside target. 

That said we do see a real possibility of a run-away market as wave V finally gathers upside momentum and run-away markets in the fifth wave in the commodity complex is more the rule that not. 

So keep an eye on gold in the month ahead as it could be the focus of attention. 

Silver is currently lagging the rally in gold, which is uncommon, and I expect silver to gather momentum alongside gold and eclipse important resistance at 30,00 for a continuation towards the former all-time high at 50,00.  

 

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil - Neckline broken Rally to 95.03 next

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil - Neckline broken Rally to 95.03 next  

In my February 23 post I showed the possible S/H/S bottom and said, that a break above the neckline would call for a rally towards 95.03. This rally is now in the cards as the neckline has been broken and the S/H/S-bottom formation now is activated. 

Longer term a rally closer to 129.30 is expected, but let's take the coming rally in baby-steps and first look for the S/H/S-bottoms target near 95.03. 

US 10Y Yield Should Peak Near 4.48

 

US 10Y Yield Should Peak Near 4.48

In my December 20 post (You can see that post by clicking here). I called for a corrective rally for the US 10Y yield towards 4.51%. Well we could see a rally close to 4.51%, but a more likely target is seen near 4.48% from where we should see wave C take over for a decline towards support in the 3.23 - 3.38 area. 

Short term a break below minor support at 4.06 will indicate that wave B has completed and wave C lower towards 3.38 is in motion. 

Elliott Wave Analysis - Crude Oil In a S/H/S Bottom

Elliott Wave Analysis - Crude Oil In a S/H/S Bottom 

Crude oil is currently in a S/H/S bottom, that will be triggered upon a break above the neckline resistance at 79.29 and a break above here will call for a rally towards the 95.03 high. This high should only prove to be a temporary stop on the way higher towards the 129.30 high. 

Support is currently seen at 75.52 which is expected to act as a solid floor for the break above neckline resistance. 

 

Elliott Wave Analysis - EUR/USD Headed for 1.2860

Elliott Wave Analysis - EUR/USD Headed for 1.2860 

In my February 5 post, I called for EUR/USD to move lower to test support at 1.0760. We have seen a low 1.0695 before EUR/USD bottomed and turned higher. Perfectly on the cycle low on February 14. 

I will now be looking for EUR/USD to break above minor resistance at 1.0898 to confirm that wave (2) indeed has completed and wave (3) higher towards 1.1830 is in motion. At 1.1830 wave 3 will be 1.618 times the length of wave (1), however, I wouldn't be surprised to see wave (3) extend ever further towards 1.2505 where wave (3) will be 2.618 times the length of wave (1) and maybe even closer to the 3 times extension of wave (1) at 1.2860.

Look for EUR/USD to gain upside momentum in the weeks ahead.