Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We are grinding slowly higher, but the rise from 126.43 is nowhere close to have impulsive characteristics. At this point only a break above 129.73 will release some more bullish upside pressure for one last rally to just above 131.12 before wave 5 finally find its top. On the other hand a break below 127.58 will have given us another lower high and the risk of wave 5 already being in place at 131.12 increases dramatically. That said it will take a break below 126.43 to confirm this lower high and a continuation down towards 124.87.

EUR/NZD

If we did see wave c of the expanding flat correction ending at 1.5308 yesterday, then wave v of c ended with a failure (no new low below wave iii of c was seen), this is normally a sign of strength of the underlying trend, which in this case is up. If we did see wave ii end at 1.5308 we should  ideally we will see support at 1.5464 protect the downside for a very powerful rally above 1.5577 soon and higher towards 1.5683 and 1.5818. A break below 1.5464 and more importantly a break below 1.5427 will indicate, that the correction in wave ii is ongoing and that we should expect a decline towards the 1.5355 - 1.5376 area before wave ii is over and wave iii higher takes over.