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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; SSEC; Gold and Crude oil

 EUR/USD - Just needs one more push above 132.70 to end the ending diagonal and set the stage for the next powerful decline towards 129.93 and 126.25 later.
In the short term the only demand is that resistance at 133.15 is not broken, at wave iii can't be the shortest. If we break above 133.15, the short term count changes slightly, but the overall count only changes if we break above 133.86.
This last push towards 132.93 should present a very nice opportunity to short EUR ag. USD with a 133.95 stop.

 USD/JPY - If my preferred count is correct then we shouldn't much more downside here. The very deep wave 4 has of cause made me look for an alternative count, which is shown above.
A break below 79.51 will make this count the preferred count, but it will also call for a deeper correction towards 78.84 and maybe even 77.58 before up.

 GBP/USD - Here we most likely need one last push higher towards the 163.00 - 163.40 area to end wave E of the major triangle that have been building since January 2009. When wave E is finally done we should see a powerful thrust out of the triangle to the downside.
 USD/CAD - Is close to end minor wave iv and set the stage for the last push to the downside in wave v down towards the 97.20 . 97.80 area, which should mark an important bottom and call for a powerful push to the upside.
Short term resistance at 99.20 can't be broken as that would favor a bottom already being in place at 97.96.
 Shanghai Composite: Has been rejected at the resistance near 2.410, but we need a break below 2,350 to confirm that wave ii is done a that wave iii down has taken over for a decline below 2,242 towards the 2,000 area.
 Gold - Seems to be break above the minor resistance-line, which will confirm a rally higher towards the 1,745 area in wave D of the triangle.
Crude Oil - Is testing resistance near 105, but it seems that it isn't able to break above, which if we break below 103.74 will call for a new test of the support-line near 101.80. Something will have to give away soon. Be ready for the next big move.

1 comment:

  1. I like the alternative count to USD/JPY.

    ReplyDelete