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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY

 EUR/USD - We are now in the final part of blue wave 3 down towards the ideal target-area between 1.2235 - 1.2285. Even though I expect some kind of correction from here, be careful as we are in the middle of the most powerful part of the decline. Corrections tend to be rather shallow at this point and oversold conditions ignored as the weak hands are forced out of the market.

 USD/JPY - The Triangle concept has work to almost perfection and we have entered the ideal target-zone between 78.33 - 78.86 (The low has been 78.69, which is just 2 small pips above the calculated target for wave v down from 79.58 the end of the B-wave triangle).
Also remember that triangles always for say the last move in direction of the ongoing trend, which is down from 84.17.
I do think we are in a low risk USD-buying area, but you could wait for confirmation via a break above 78.94 and more importantly above 79.13, which will be the first indication that wave 2 has bottomed.

 EUR/JPY - Is very close to the invalidation point at 97.01 and therefore is in a low-risk buying area.
Wave 2 is allowed to retrace all of wave 1 but not more, which means a stop can be placed just a few pips below 97.01. However we need a break above 98.91 to get the first indication that the correction from 111.43 is over, while a break above 99.94 confirms the bottom.
A break below the invalidation-point at 97.01 will force me back to the drawing board, but the count shown above will stand until proven wrong.
CHF/JPY - The picture is pretty much the same as for EUR/JPY. We are in the very last part of the wave 2 correction down from 92.40. At no point can a break below the starting-point of wave 1 at 79.94 be allowed, which is why we currently is in a low risk CHF-buying area for a break above 82.37 as the first indication, that wave 2 has bottomed, while a break above 83.31 confirms the bottom.
Again wave 2 is allowed to correct all of wave 1, but not go a single pip below so any break below 79.94 will force me back to the drawing board, but the count shown above will stand to proven wrong.

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