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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; The VIX Index; DJI; Gold and Natural Gas

My charting-system is up and running again!

EUR/USD - Still haven't seen real wave 3 action towards the downside, even though the decline follows the path that I drew some time ago.
However I feel confident that the downside pressure is mounting and once risk takes is forced to close their positions we will finally see the real wave 3 behavior.
VIX - Yesterday we saw the first close above the resistance-line, which is bullish for the volatility.
However we also closed outside the upper Bollinger Band, which normally calls for a set-back towards the mid-band, before the next real pressure towards the upside sets in.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - Closed below the 12,735 support , which calls for more downside pressure towards at least 12,400, where we we find the next strong support.
The big question is whether a new X-wave is developing before the final rally up in a complete triple-correction from the 2009 low. It would fit my long term view nicely if it was the case. See the post here http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/03/dow-jones-industrial-index-interesting.html.
CRB  Index - Closed below the important support at 294 for the first time on Friday since October 2010. If this close is confirmed on the weekly chart with a close below here on next Friday it will be very bearish and call for a continuation towards at least 259 and longer term we should see a break below the ending-point of wave [A] at 200.
Gold - Is very close to break below important support at 1,521, which will call for a continuation down towards 1,300. However short term it seems as a minor rally towards the 1,594 - 1,609 area should be seen first.
Natural Gas - The first impulsive rally ended at 2.53 and we should now be looking for a correction down towards 2.29 as first target. However longer term we should see Natural Gas trade much higher.
Buying of this set-back should provide a low-risk long term buy-opportunity with a stop at 1.89 as the low at 1.90 can not be broken at any time as that will change the picture to something completely different. 

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