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Thursday, May 17, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; NZD/USD; The VIX; DJI; Junk Bonds and Copper

 EUR/USD - Should see one last decline towards strong long term support near 1.2625, which will mark the end to green wave iii. From close to 1.2625 we should see a minor correction in green wave iv before the next downside pressure in green wave v is seen, this time break below 1.2625.
 USD/JPY - The most likely scenario short term is, that we have seen the final X-wave done at 80.55 and that the last part of the correction from 84.17 is under way towards the ideal target-area between 78.33 . 78.85, from where the next impulsive rally above 84.17 should begin.
Short term a break below 80.17 will be first indication that the X-wave is done.

GBP/USD -  More and more odds favor, that the long term triangle ended at 1.6301 and the final thrust out of the triangle to the downside has begun.
Looking at the short term picture red wave iii will most likely end in the 1.5866 - 1.5884 area and set up a minor rally towards the 1.5930 area and then the last decline towards 1.5802 in red wave v and wave black wave iii.
 NZD/USD - The decline since the 0.8233 has been very steep, but we have now reached strong support in the 0.7619 - 0.7652 area, which should provide a correction towards 0.7854 in black wave iv, but longer term focus should be set at much lower levels.
 VIX Index - Only went side ways and is now closing inside the Bollinger Band, which could set the next stage for more upside towards resistance at 26.86. However there is a possibility that the sideways price-action will continue to the mid-band reaches to just below 21 before the next move higher is seen.
 Dow Jones Industrial Index - Support at 12.735 when broken turned nicely into resistance, which is one of the clearest signals you can get, that the trend has changed. Therefore keep you eyes on the next support near 12,400 if this support is broken too, then 12.257 - 12,258 become the next critical support-area.
 Junk Bonds (JNK) - Is beginning to look very bearish a break below support at 38.64 will open up the downside for a decline towards 37.91 and probably lower towards 36.19 longer term.
Copper - Dr. Copper seems to have joined the gang telling us that the Global economy is headed towards trouble. A break below support at 338.40 will call for a test of the important neck-line support near 314. If we sees a clear break below here that would be very bearish, especially for China and the Chinese banks. In many cases the Chinese banks have used Copper as collateral for loans and these loans will be in trouble if Copper-prices begins to turn down hard.

1 comment:

  1. sir natural gas has not come down from 2.53$ or 2.59$ it is going higher n higher

    ReplyDelete