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Thursday, May 10, 2012

Commodity currencies on the retreat

 USD/CAD - The Expanded flat correction I described yesterday has played out almost to perfection.
We should now see resistance in the 1.0030 - 1.0040 area protect the upside for a break below 0.9991 towards the target-area between 0.9882 - 0.9900 before the next impulsive rally takes over.
 AUD/USD - The decline from 1.0474 does have all the characteristic of an impulsive decline. Ideally resistance at 1.0220 will protect the upside for a continuation towards 0.9857 and 0.9659 as the next targets.

NZD/USD - Here too we have all the characteristic for an impulsive decline from 0.8234.
Short term we should see a correction towards 0.7972, from where we should see the next decline towards strong support near 0.7550.


USD/BRL (Brazilian Real) - Even though this currency is not freely traded it's one of the commodity currencies. As can be seen today we broke above resistance at 1.9505 and if we manage to close above here today a major "Cup with handle" will be activated for a continuation higher towards 2.3850 and possibly even 2.6257.
A very common way to get an exposure to BRL is by buying corporate bonds, which normally yields well, but if BRL is about to decline by some 22% against USD you better get out of the way or hedge the BRL exposure through NDF-contracts (Non deliverable forwards - Please see here: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/ndf.asp#axzz1uSvPkEHa)




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