EUR/USD (Weekly chart) - The above count seems to fit the price-action since the July 2008 high at 160.38 nicely. If the above count is correct, then we finished a big B-wave triangle at 142.47 and has since seen a thrust out of the triangle, where wave 1 ended at 126.23 and wave 2 ended at 134.86.
From the top of wave 2 we have seen two minor five wave declines followed by two three wave rallies, which fits a series of 1 and 2's.
Zooming in on the last two minor waves one's and two's please see the chart below
EUR/USD (4 hourly) - The current rise is counted as minor blue wave 2 from 129.93 and if we are looking at an minor Ending diagonal as minor blue wave c then we can't see a rally beyond 133.15, as the will leave minor blue wave iii as the smallest and that is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. Just below at 132.93 we find the 76.4% retracement of blue wave 1 down, so we should expect a top in the 132.93 - 133.14 area calling for a powerful blue wave iii down soon.
A rally beyond 133.15 will invalidate the ending diagonal count, but only a break above 133.85 will invalidate the above count.
Therefore selling EUR ag. USD close to 132.93 with a 133.95 stop should offer a good risk/reward opportunity.
The conservative way to trade this will be to wait for a break below 131.55 with the same stop.
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