Translate

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; SSEC; Gold and Natural Gas

 EUR/USD - Is again testing strong support near 1.2990 and a clear break below here (expected soon) will open up for a decline towards the next strong support near 1.2625.
 USD/JPY - It's most likely judgement day today. Which count is the correct one. Is it that we currently is tracing out a wave 4 ? In this case we can't break below 79.51. If however we do break below 79.51, then the alternate count becomes the preferred count. This count has a complete five wave rally from 75.55 to 84.17 as wave 1 and the wave 2 correction is still ongoing for a decline towards 78.85.
 GBP/USD - Is sitting at strong short term support and a clear break below here will call for the next powerful down-leg.
The preferred long term count saw wave E of the big B-wave triangle end at 1.6301 and we have now begun a powerful thrust out of the triangle, which will ultimately take us below the ending point of wave A at 1.3498.

 USD/CAD - Missed it ideal downside target with about 30 pips. The rally from 0.9796 has clearly been in five wave to 1.0022 and since some kind of flat correction has been developing.
I slightly prefer an expanded flat correction, which in its b-wave will target strong resistance near 1.0052, before wave c takes us down to the 0.99 - 0.9935 area and maybe even slightly lower.
This expected decline should provide a low risk long term buying opportunity of USD ag. CAD.
 Shanghai Composite - Resistance held firm and we have broken below the steep support-line, which is likely the first sign, that we are ready to the next decline towards the 2,000 support.
We have some hurdles to clear first and we can start with support at 2,350.

Gold - We have now broken clearly below the support near 1,635 all we need now is a break below 1,521 and the count becomes clear an favors the one shown above. A break below 1,521 will call for a continuation towards at least the 1,300 area, but we should probably expect to see a continuation down to 1,086 longer term.
Natural Gas - Has trusted out of the triangle as expected, but this thrust is also a warning that the first five wave rally from 1.90 is near completion. It's only a question if it will end near 2.50 are near 2.60. The next decline towards the 2.16 - 2.18 area should provide a low risk long term buying opportunity.

No comments:

Post a Comment