EUR/USD - As expected resistance was found in the gap-area between 130.63 - 1.3078. The high o/n has been 1.3065 that means we could be ready to challenge support in the low 1.2990 area again. Sooner or later the support near 1.2990 should break for a more serious test of long term important support near 1.2625.
At no point should we see a break above 1.3180 as that would leave us we a clear three wave decline from 1.3283. Therefore stops on shorts from near 1.3283 should be moved down to 131.90.
USD/JPY - The rally from 79.64 has been messy and overlapping. The only impulsive wave that have this character is the leading diagonal, so as long as we don't break below 79.64 i will favor this count, but I'm well aware that a break below 79.64 and more importantly 79.51 will call for a wave 1 top at 84.17 and wave 2 still in motion towards 78.81.
A break above resistance at 80.60 will ease the downside pressure and call for a rally towards the next resistance in the 81.66 - 81.77 area.
GBP/USD - As I said yesterday the decline from 1.6301 to 1.6111 was best described as a leading expanding diagonal. The rally from 1.6111 to 1.6198 is likely wave ii or the first part of wave ii. A break below 1.6111 will add confidence in the rally to 1.6198 being wave ii while a break below 1.6078 clearly will confirm that and call for a continuation down to 1.5920.
If the rally to 1.6198 was only the first part of wave ii then expect support at 1.6111 to protect the downside for a break above 1.6183 to confirm one new high to near 1.6228.
Shanghai Composite - Has moved higher that I expected, but resistance here is strong and should ideally protect the upside for a break below 2,415 and more importantly 2.350 to confirm that the next serious decline to 2.000 have begun.
Any break above 2,476 will call for an alternate count saying that wave 2 isn't over yet and need a little more upside towards the 2,534 - 2,536 area before renewed downside pressure can be expected.
Gold - Is currently testing the support-line and a clear break below here will weaken the long term uptrend, but we need a break below 1,611 and more importantly 1,521 to confirm that the test of 1.920 market wave V and a deeper decline to at least 1,300 have begun.
Natural Gas - The rally of the 1.90 low is now entering the final part of the first rally. The ideal target for this last part of the rally is at 2.46, but an extension towards 2.59 can not be excluded.
As can be seen on the chart above minor wave iv has become an triangle and triangle always forewarn the last move in the way of the underlying trend, which in this case is up since the 1.90 low.
When we have pin-pointed the high it will be labelled as wave 1 and should be followed by a decline towards the 2.18 - 2.24 area before we can expect renewed upside pressure.
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