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Friday, December 23, 2011

Technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Shanghai Comp.; T-Bonds; Gold; Copper and Crude Oil

Today's post will be very long. Hope you will enjoy it.

USD-Index - We saw a nice back test of the neckline support and the rejection at that support suggest, that we soon should see minor resistance at 80.14 break for a move towards important resistance at 80.73 and a break here confirms the next serious rally towards 82.60


EUR/USD - Here too we saw a nice back test to the neckline resistance at 132.05. I'm now looking for a break below 130.20 to confirm the next decline towards 125.75.

For the short term we might need more time trading more or less sideways, but it should only be a question of time before we see support at 130.20 lost.


USD/JPY - Can feel the long term trendline resistance on its back as it tries to push above. Will it succeed? If we can break clearly above 78.30 then we can say, that an important bottom was found at 75.50 and a break above the neckline resistance at 79.15 should confirm a rally back to the wave 4 triangle apex at 115 longer term.




S&P 500 - We are facing resistance here at 1,256. I don't think it will be any easy task to break above here. We are packed with resistance in this area and a break below 1,247 and more importantly 1,229.50 will turn the tide and call for a move towards support in the 1,200 - 1,202
area.


Shanghai Composite - The red Pitchfork mid-line is doing its best to prevent a collapse in prices, but if we are in wave 3 down as I expects, then the mid-line will give in to the pressure at some point and a collapse towards 1,662 should be seen.


T-Bonds - I just thought that the pattern is very interesting here. We might be building a major double top with a neckline at near 135.50. However we also have good support at 142.25 and a break below here will confirm a decline to the neckline.


Gold - With only five trading days back the break below the support line from 2009 might be closer than many Gold-bugs like. If this trendline is broken then we should turn focus towards the downside for a quick test of support at 1,528, but I believe we will a move towards the 1,283 area too.


Copper - Is back testing the minor support line (now resistance), that was broken last week. We should soon see a more firm test of the neckline support near the 305 area and a break here will spell real trouble for the Global economy.




Crude oil - Is testing strong resistance here in the high 99 area. We should be close to a new break-down in prices. A break below 99.15 and more importantly 98.50 confirms that a top is in place for the next serious decline. Until we loose 99.15 we could see a move to 100 and maybe just slightly above, but don't bet on it...

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