I have been working with the longer term picture in EUR/USD lately. The weekly chart above is packed with information, where we might find support.The longer term count I see most fit, is the one showed above. If this count is correct we should now be in wave [C] down. Wave [C] will be equal in length to wave [A] at 112.25, which is very close to the Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target (see the light green lines). The first thing to notice is, that we currently is testing the mid-line of the big red Pitchfork near 129.66. This support may cause some consolidation, but when it breaks we should see a quick decline towards the next very strong support near 126.45.
At this point we could see a reaction back to 133.00, but I don't really expect any move beyond the 131.90 - 132.46 before the next serious test of 129.66.
Above I stated that 126.45 would be a very strong support, the reason can be found in the chart below. Here we can see a very large Pitchfork dominating the picture since the major bottom in 1985. Notice how it nailed the 2008 top at 160.38, but the important thing to look for is the Support line, which currently comes in at around 125.54. I will keep working with my 112.25 - 112.50 target, but at the same time keep an eye on the price action as we approach support in the 125.54 - 126.45 area.
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