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Thursday, December 1, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

EUR/USD - Yesterday we saw a coordinated action from the major central banks, which flipped everything around, at least for the short term. Yes the rallies extended, but where the extraordinary? No way! I actually find them pitiful.
However we saw EUR/USD break back above 134.42, which has opened for a continuation towards 135.31. If support at 134.15 caps the downside we should a continuation towards 136.06, from where I would look for renewed pressure to the downside. A clear break below 134.15 would most likely indicate, that a top is already in place at 135.31.

USD/JPY - As we took out support at 77.58 I think the count shown is a better short term fit.
That means we could see one more pressure close to 77.28 or just below before the next rally towards important resistance at 78.95 and 79.51.


S&P 500 - The zig-zag red wave II count was clearly the right one. We are now entering a resistance-zone in the area from 1,248 - 1,253, which I expect will block for further progress to the upside. A break below 1,233.58 will be the first clue, that a top is in place, while we do need a break below 1,196.86 to confirm the top.

What if we just blow through resistance at 1,253? A break above 1,253 will call for a continuation higher towards 1,264 and possibly 1,276.


Gold - Also benefited from the Central Banks action, but is facing strong resistance at 1,760, which should mark wave iv of and ending expanded diagonal calling for one more decline towards strong resistance at 1,642 and even stronger at 1,577.


Crude Oil - Also made a go for it, but resistance in the 101.65 - 102 zone seems to have done its job. We have clear short term divergence between the price-action and the MACD-Indicator, which should prevent further advance and call for a break below support at 100.00 soon. A break below this support will call for a new test of the 95 area.

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