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Friday, December 30, 2011

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; SP 500; Shanghai Comp.; Gold and Crude Oil

USD-Index - It is just a matter of time before we break clearly above resistance at 80.40 for the next rally higher towards 82.60 and the inverted S/H/S target at 87.55 longer term.
We might need some more consolidation just below 80.40, but as I said it's just a matter of time before it breaks.

EUR/USD - Have already broken below its support and should be headed down towards its next target in the 125.45 - 126.45 area. Longer term the S/H/S target measures down to 112.25, but remember the strong Pitchfork support near 126.45.


USD/JPY - Wasn't able to break above long term resistance, which most likely will cause a move back to support at 77.15 before the next attempt to break above the long term falling trend line.

Only a clear break above resistance at 78.15 will confirm, that an important bottom is in place at 75.50.



S&P 500 - I'm still looking for a move higher towards 1,292 and maybe even closer to 1,299, but more than that isn't expected. From the 1,292 - 1,299 area we should see a new powerful decline below 1,248.68 and more importantly 1,229.50, which confirms the next decline to 1,202 and lower.

The longer term picture (see below) is still dominated by the major S/H/S top calling for a return to the at least the 2009 lows.




Shanghai Composite - I still see this as an ending diagonal, where we are missing the last leg down towards the 2,110 area, from where a correction higher towards the 2,239 area should be seen.

Short term look for a break below 2,171 to confirm the last leg down.


Gold - Made it down to my target area between 1,528 - 1,535 and we should now see a correction towards the 1,613 and more likely towards the 1,636 - 1,642 area, before the next challenge of support at 1,528 will be seen.


Crude Oil - Is setting it self up for a powerful decline towards 92.80 and lower. At the chart above we can see an interesting fractal in the MACD, which calls for an extended period in the oversold area calling for a powerful decline. The last time we saw this, crude oil dropped more than 5% in one day, so be very careful in these lofty areas. Short term I do look for one last move to just below 101 - Ideally 100.96, which should mark an excellent selling opportunity

The bigger picture (see below) also calls for a decline towards the neckline, which currently is at 77.40 moving up slightly.


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