EUR/USD - Is closing in on support at 128.71, which easily could lead to some kind of correction or consolidation. Longer term I look for much lower levels and when 128.71 breaks we should be looking for a continuation towards next support in the high 125 area.
USD/JPY - The picture is pretty much the same. Long term resistance is just above in the 78.50 - 78.75 area, but a break above here will confirm, that an important bottom is in place at 75.50 and longer term a rally back to the triangle apex at 115 would be seen.
GBP/USD - The breakdown has begun. We should soon seen support at 152.70 tested and probably also support near 151.30. Here too we must expect some kind of reaction or consolidation. Longer term I'm still looking for much lower levels (118 is the triangle target).
USD/CAD - Has actually done surprising well lately, but we should soon see a challenge of resistance first near 104.85 and then more importantly near 106.30 (neckline resistance). From And Elliott Wave perspective the most likely count is, that we are in some kine of "X" wave, which seems to take shape of a triangle. If this is the case we should see resistance at 104.85 turn us down in wave "E" towards 102.69 and maybe even closer to 102, before we really take on the neckline resistance near 106.30.
Shanghai Composite - Is now close to the red Pitchfork mid-line. I don't see any reason why it should just be broken, as we are in the powerful wave 3 of 5 down, but it may however be able to cause a short term consolidation just above, before it breaks and the lower support-line become the magnet.
S&P 500 - We are still not out of the woods. We could see one more go to the upside, but there isn't much more room to the downside. A break below 1,198 will make it very difficult too hang on to any bullish short term counts. Any break below 1,158.67 will invalidate all short term bullish counts and call for a decline towards neckline support near 1,085.
Gold - BREAK DOWN! Okay cool it. the chart above is a monthly chart and we are only half-way into it, but this is the first break below this support-line in almost four years, that's important no matter which time-frame we are looking at. It immediately calls for a test of support in the 1,528 - 1,534 area, but it will make it much harder to regain the extreme optimism we have seen lately.I do think that we are headed lower towards at least the 38.2% retracement of the entire rise from 1999 to the top in 2011, which is near 1,240. There will of cause be some heavy supports along the way down. Support in the 1,430 - 1,460 area will be one of them.
Silver - I had a request regarding Silver yesterday and my opinion. So here we go. My best count is (not shown on the chart), that we have seen an "X" wave from 26 to 35.66 and we should now see the next A-B-C down to first support at 26 and then 24. As the first Zig-zag was very powerful I would expect some not that powerful and much more messy (remember the rule of Alternation). In my view gold is much more interesting at this point.
Copper - Along side the other metals took quite a beating yesterday. We broke below minor support at 337.60, which calls for a more serious test of neckline support near 305 and a break below here will set us up for a decline towards the 160 area. Actually the S/H/S top give us a target near 130, but we will find strong support at 160 first.
Crude Oil - Fell more than 5 pct. I consider that a crash (any objections?) Whats more we took out 95. Only slightly and we are currently trading just above 95, but you don't want to be long in Crude oil after this. It should only be a question of time before we see next serious decline towards 92.54 and then more importantly 89.20.
Silver - I had a request regarding Silver yesterday and my opinion. So here we go. My best count is (not shown on the chart), that we have seen an "X" wave from 26 to 35.66 and we should now see the next A-B-C down to first support at 26 and then 24. As the first Zig-zag was very powerful I would expect some not that powerful and much more messy (remember the rule of Alternation). In my view gold is much more interesting at this point.
Copper - Along side the other metals took quite a beating yesterday. We broke below minor support at 337.60, which calls for a more serious test of neckline support near 305 and a break below here will set us up for a decline towards the 160 area. Actually the S/H/S top give us a target near 130, but we will find strong support at 160 first.
Crude Oil - Fell more than 5 pct. I consider that a crash (any objections?) Whats more we took out 95. Only slightly and we are currently trading just above 95, but you don't want to be long in Crude oil after this. It should only be a question of time before we see next serious decline towards 92.54 and then more importantly 89.20. Longer term we should see a break below 75 and actually we should see Crude oil much lower, but lets eat the Elephant in smaller bits.
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