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Monday, December 12, 2011

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Shanghai Comp.; Gold and Crude oil

EUR/USD - The price action on Friday was a bit weird, but in the bigger picture I'm still looking for a break below important support at 132.05 to confirm the next serious decline towards 128.75 and possibly even much deeper.


USD/JPY - Looking at the bigger picture we are still locked in the long term ending diagonal, but in my favorite scenario, I still prefer that we saw an important bottom at 75.50. However we need a break above the resistance line near 78.60 to confirm this scenario and a call for a return to the wave 4 triangle apex at 115.


S&P 500 - We are in a big correction since the 2007 top, where we have seen wave [A] bottom in March 2009 wave [B] topped in late April 2011 and we are in the early stages of wave [C] down. Prechter has it as wave 3 of [C] down, where the top in 2007 was the end of wave [B]. I do think this is a too bearish a call, but my wave [C] and Prechter's wave 3 could have similar personalities - A swift and powerful decline.


Shanghai Composite - Today broke below its support at 2,305.00, that means we could have started the next serious decline towards the bottom of wave [A] at 1,667 and longer term we should see a continuation towards at least the 1,500 area.

Be aware that the Shanghai Composite has been leading the S&P 500 both down and up.


Gold - The big question is still whether we have see an important top at 1,920 or we will see one more rally to above 2,000 to end the major rise from 1999.

We clearly need a break below the support line near 1,600 to confirm that an important top has been seen. However we are closing on decision-time as we are almost at the end of the two converging lines.


Crude oil - Is very much in sync with the other charts above. If my count is correct we are in the early stages of wave 3 of [C] down. This wave [C] has a target below the bottom of wave [A] at 32.70. However we have some important short term hurdles need to break below. The first is at 95 follower by a more important one near 75, but if they break we are clearly under way down.

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