USD-Index - Has tested the 50% retracement target of the decline from 88.34 to 72.84. We might be looking at some consolidation before the next rally higher towards 82.60 sets in.In the bigger picture the Inverted S/H/S bottom has been triggered and has a target in the 87 range.
USD/JPY - Is approaching the long term downtrend line from 124.16 in mid-2007. We need to break above this resistance to confirm, that 75.50 is an important bottom and in the longer term a return to the wave 4 triangle apex at 115.The downtrend line is currently at 78.35 and the neckline resistance (pink) is at 79.15.
GBP/USD - Is trading just around is minor support, but it should be a question of time before we see a clear break to the downside and a test of the next important support near 151.35. Longer term the trust down from the [B]-wave triangle calls for a decline towards the 112 area.
S&P 500 - We still have no clear resolution here. Is wave 2 done at 1,292.66 and have we begun the next serious decline towards 1,085? Or are we missing one more leg to the upside calling for a rally to just under 1,300? As can be seen above the first decline from 1,292.66 stopped right at the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1,074.77 to 1,292.66, but the following rally was not convincing and has left us with two almost equal possibilities. I slightly favor the downside and a break below 1,192 and more importantly 1,158, but everybody is looking and pushing for the Santa-rally so just maybe we will have, but don't bet on it...
Gold - Is still headed for a test of support in the 1,528 - 1,534.49 range and if this support breaks too, we should be looking for the next support near 1,431 and possibly even 1,284.
Crude oil - Is working is way down, after wave ii ended at 102.44. We have just meet support at the red Pitchforks mid-line and at the same time hit the 38.2% retracement target of the rally from 75 to 103.37, but we are now in wave iii down and corrections tend to be small and shallow at this point, we should be looking for a test of support at 89.19 and 85.83 soon.
Gold - Is still headed for a test of support in the 1,528 - 1,534.49 range and if this support breaks too, we should be looking for the next support near 1,431 and possibly even 1,284.Remember we have broken be the 4-year support line, which is a sign of weakness, but the break has to be confirmed by a break below the 1,528 - 1,535 area too, otherwise we could see one more rally to just above 2,000.
Crude oil - Is working is way down, after wave ii ended at 102.44. We have just meet support at the red Pitchforks mid-line and at the same time hit the 38.2% retracement target of the rally from 75 to 103.37, but we are now in wave iii down and corrections tend to be small and shallow at this point, we should be looking for a test of support at 89.19 and 85.83 soon.The Global economy is slowly but surely headed for recession and demand for oil will be less. Remember 2008?
Europe's faith is given austerities and every thing. China could easily be headed for a hard landing (my preferred view) and the US economy is fighting to keep its pace above zero, but I'm sure it will fail too within the first half of 2012.
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