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Thursday, December 22, 2011

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - After a almost perfect back test of the neckline resistance, we are now ready to continue down to next support at 129.56 and then very strong support just below 126.
Short term i would expect resistance at 130.90, but we must accept a move towards 131.30 before a break below 130.10 confirms the next serious decline


USD/JPY - We are closing in on long term resistance in form of the long term falling trend line at 78.15 and we need a break above here to confirm, that an important bottom is in place at 75.50 and a rally towards the triangle apex at 115 has begun.
This is not the most pretty picture I have ever seen, but I still favor a break above 78.15 for a move towards the low 79 area, where we will find neckline resistance.



AUD/USD - Clearly took advantage of the risk on rally we saw Tuesday, but we saw a large bearish wick yesterday, which calls for a break below 100.50 to confirm the next decline towards 98.85.

Short term I looking for a test of minor resistance at 101.15 and maybe even 101.60, before the decline through 100.50 confirms the next move down.


S&P 500 - Is doing its best not to loose sight of the pink Pitchfork resistance line near 1,243. Even if we does see a move to 1,256 resistance will be hard to break short term. Only a clear break above 1,256 will confirm the Santa rally to just below 1,300, but as everybody is now looking for that move will we see it? I doubt it, but lets see what happens as we get closer to resistance at 1,256.

A break below 1,202 will invalidate any further upside progress.


Gold - Spiked a little over my resistance at 1,634, but as can be seen it was clearly a failure break and the following break below 1,605 tells us, that we are headed towards important support at 1,528.

Short term we could see a move towards the 1,623 -1,627 area before the next serious pressure to the downside sets in.


Crude Oil - Did a little more upside progress than expected, but I don't really see much more power in this rally, maybe one last move higher towards the 99.50-99.75 area. I would be looking for selling opportunities around this area or a break below 96.70 as the safer bet, for the next decline towards 92.54 and 89.20.

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