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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

I have got a new version of my "old" charting system and the new charts looks awful when copied, so I will update with the charts from FreeStockCharts.com.



EUR/USD - We should be close to the maximum upside potential. I'm looking for a break below 133.50 and more importantly 133.33, which will confirm the next decline towards 132.20.


If we continue to climb much higher (above 134.82), that will leave us with an "x" wave to 133.30 calling for a move higher towards 136.10.

USD/JPY - We should be very close to a bottom. We could see a move towards 77.30, before the next leg higher through 77.89 to confirm the test of the long term falling downtrend line at 78.70 and a break above here confirms the long term bottom at 75.50.


S&P 500 - The above count could easily be the right on. It would call for a minor set-back in wave b and setting the stage for one more rally in wave c towards the 1,291 - 1,300 area, before the next serious attempt to the downside.

Longer term I still looking for a firmer test of the strong neckline support near 1,080 and a break below (I expect a break) here will point towards the 2009 bottom.


Gold - Nothing new to add. We are locked into some kind of triangle shaped formation, which I expect will be broken to the downside for a more firm test of strong support at 1,580.


Crude oil - Is holding up well, but it should be a matter of time before support near 98 breaks and calls for a continuation lower towards 95 and the 86 area. Longer term we should still be headed much lower.

Resistance is at 102.25.

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