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Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD-Index; USD/JPY; Shanghai Comp.; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

USD-Index - Is trading right at the neckline resistance, but a clear break above here will open up the upside side for a continuation towards the 87 area (S/H/S target). As the USD-Index is made up of 59% EUR I do favor a break above the neckline soon.


EUR/USD - Here we have already broken below the neckline support, which if sustained will open up for a continuation down towards the 112 area (S/H/S target). Good support will of cause be found on the way down.

Short term the will be support at 131.44 and again at 128.71.



USD/JPY - Should be ready to challenge resistance in the 78 area soon, but we need a break to confirm, that the test of 75.50 marked a long term bottom and a continuation higher towards the triangle apex at 115.


Shanghai Composite - After the break below important support at 2,305 yesterday, we saw a gap down today, which call a continuation towards the Pitchforks mid-line near 2,150.

Longer term I'm looking for a much deeper decline towards the 1,800 and the 1,500 area at least.


S&P 500 - It's still a little to early to tell whether wave ii from is 1,158.67 is over or even if the wave 2 of one larger degree is over, but the possibility is clearly there. Only a short term break above 1,258.24 will tell us that we need one more push to the upside.

At this point I would not be long at all. I would rather be short or wait to short if minor support at 1,180 breaks.


Gold - Could an important top be in place at 1,920? YES! To back this statement I have been looking into the possibilities and the above chart is one of the best cases we can make. If we take a closer look we can see that wave 3 was a little larger that 2,618 time wave 1, but the possible wave 5 is almost exactly 1,618 times larger than wave 1 through 3 at 1,920. That said we need a break below support near 1,600 and more importantly 1,534, which would confirm a much deeper decline.

As long as support at 1,600 stays firm we must accept the possibility of one last rally higher towards 2,036. I simply can't see the 3,000 or even more obscure 5,000, as many keeps mention as their target, as something to look for at this time.


Crude Oil - Short term I looking for a break below 97.50 to confirm the next serious test of support at 95 and a break below here confirms the next decline towards 89.90 and to strong support at 75.

Longer term I'm looking for a break below 75 to confirm a more serious decline.

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