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Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; USD/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI; SSEC; Gold; Silver and Crude oil

I am back from vacation. I have used monday to update my charts, so lets jump right into the pool...

EUR/USD - I slightly prefer the above count, that blue wave 4 ended at 1.2747 and that we have begun blue wave 5 down to 1.2064 as the first target.
A break below 1.2551 will add credence to this count, but we need a break below support at 1.2460 to confirm that the above count is the correct one.
The risk is of cause a break above 1.2747, which will tell us, that blue wave 4 isn't over yet and a move higher towards the 1.2783 - 1.2824 area should be seen before we can consider blue wave 4 as done.
EUR/JPY - This count does look very much as the count above in EUR/USD. Here I am looking for one last decline in wave 5 towards 94.58. The question is whether wave 4 did end at 101.62 or wave 4 is still ongoing? A break below 99.61 will add confidence in the fact that wave 4 did indeed end at 101.62, but only a break below support at 99.48 will confirm it. As long as support at 99.61 isn't broken we could see 102.12
USD/JPY - We are in the early start of wave 3 towards at least 86.13. I would like to see a clear impulsive wave towards the upside in wave iii. A break above resistance at 80.00 will be the first good indication that red wave iii is under way for a rally towards 82.43 and maybe even higher.
Until the break above 80.00 and more importantly 80.59 is a reality the risk is that wave ii will be more complex.
EUR/NZD - Wave 5 has become extended and should ideally reach its target near 1.5533 actually it could even extend deeper towards 1.5352, but I would not count on that outcome at this point in time.
We can see the early signs of positive divergence building, which is a warning that a bottom might be close at hand.


Dow Jones Industrial Index: Made a light new high yesterday, which do point us towards the 12,970 - 13,048 area as target for wave 2 of C. Longer term I'm still looking for a decline in wave C towards the 9,662 - 9,916 area, before the next big rally higher.

Shanghai Composite - Is well under way towards strong support near 2,000. Short term I expect resistance at 2,276 to protect the upside for the next move lower towards 2,143.

Gold - Is very close to it's ideal green wave 2 target near 1,611, from where risk again turns lower towards important support near 1,520. However it's only a break below 1,520 which confirms a much deeper decline. A break below 1,600 will confirm that green wave ii is done.

Silver - Is Silver about to confirm the next deep decline ? A break clear break below 26.00 will do a lot of damage to technical picture, but only a break below 21.24 will invalidate the alternate count (the lower chart), that a triangle is building and longer term a new rally above 49.51 should be seen.
If important support at 26.00 protects the downside for a new rally higher towards 32.84 I will give the triangle count slightly higher odds, but a break below 26.00 will raise odds, that important support at 21.24 will be broken too.
Crude Oil - Did the test of 77.28 mark an important bottom ? Not in my view I am still looking for much lower levels in Crude Oil. In My view the decline to 77.28 only marked the bottom of minor wave iii and we should now see a minor rally in wave iv towards 87.03 and maybe even 90.82, but for there risk again turns to the downside for a decline towards 72.65.

6 comments:

  1. Hi welcome back I really was looking forward for you to show up............As you told gold broke the support and 1607 and found support on 1550 ..........so profit was there but Aussie and Kiwi are really outperformers. As kiwi has overlap 0.8056 in a very strong five wave rally You can post the bigger picture of both aussie and kiwi as I am looking for it big time If there is decline is still or howmuch upward movement is left Because euro and pound have decline and sideways but there is No downtrend for both outstanding commodities oriented pairs.

    Thanks and regards

    Aman

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Aman,

    Yes Aussie and Kiwi has outperformed big time the last 14 days. I will update them today or no later than tomorrow.

    Regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  3. Welcome back!
    Could you post something about natgas? And Dax?
    Thanks,
    CJ

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi CJ,

    Thank you!

    I updated Nat. Gas today as I'm sure you have already seen.

    Will look at DAX tomorrow.

    Regards EWS

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you for the Nat Gas and for the DAX too! :)
    Have a nice day,

    CJ

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi CJ

    You are always welcome ;o)

    Thank you and a nice day and weekend to you.

    EWS

    ReplyDelete