USD-Index - After breaking above the Inverted S/H/S bottom neck-line at 81.63 we have seen a back-test of the neckline, which held with success. All we need now to confirm the next rally higher towards the S/H/S target near 91.61 is a clear break above 83.56.
EUR/USD (Monthly) - Since the low in March 1985 EUR/USD has been locked in a wide rising channel. The rally of the bottom in 1985 to the high in 1992 was copied of the 2000 low to the 2008 in both time a length. In May 2012 the 11 year support-line for the 2001 low was broken signaling a shift in sentiment towards the downside and calling for a decline towards the channel support-line.
EUR/USD (Daily) - Since the 1.6038 high in March 2008 we have been working our way lower in a big A-B-C correction. After finishing the big B - wave Triangle in late October 2011 we should continue lower in a impulsive C - wave towards par longer term.
We are currently in wave 3 down from the October 2011 high. Third waves is normally the most powerful and dynamic of the impulsive waves.
As can be seen on the chart above strong support will be encountered in the 1.1661 - 1.1898 area and we should expect this support to provide a bounce in price it should just be a matter of time before the support-area between 1.1661 - 1.1898 gives away for a continuation lower.
EUR/USD (4 Hourly) - Looking at the sub-waves we are currently correction green wave iii in green wave iv towards support in the 1.2362 - 1.2404 area, which should set the stage for green wave v down towards 1.2122 as the first target for green wave v.
Hello elliottwavesurfer,
ReplyDeleteCan you tell me How there is W and X after ABC in monthly chart?
Hi
ReplyDeleteI can understand if you are a bit confused.
The monthly chart shows a A-B-C correction followed by an X-wave and then I expect a new A-B-C correction to the downside.
The daily chart shows a Triangle B-wave and we should new be in the C-wave down.
Both counts is valid at this point and both calling for more downside pressure.
The reason for the A-B-C followed by an X-Wave on the monthly is, that a triangle count here really will look obscure, but I will not dismiss the possibility.
I hope that answer your question? Otherwise please don't hesitate to write me again.
Kind regards
EWS
In your monthly chart, you show A-B-C-X and you expect to have a new A-B-C. How about if I numbered W-X-Y-X-Z, so I expect the Z wave rather than new A-B-C?
DeleteThe conversion from your count to my count are A = W, B = X, C = Y, X = X, new A = Z. In your opinion, is my count possible?
Yeah I got similar comments......monthly labeling suggests a double zigzag so one would expect a second A-B-C at some point with a SIZABLE wave B
ReplyDeleteYet daily labeling has a wave 3 firing down to the 1.09 area.
Right now I'm thinking there will be pretty formidable resistance in the 1.1650 area so I'm not so sure about the daily count.
Shorter term anyways I'm curious to see if a contracting triangle is going to trace out. Triangle depth of about 700 pips will easily and realistically bring price down to said 1.1650 area (ROUGHLY) and terminate this leg down (from 1.49) as contracting triangles are supposed to do.