First scenario: Is that red wave ii has become an expanded flat correction which should end in the 1.5590 - 1.5635 target-zone (ideally near 1.5635).
Second scenario: Black wave 2 did not end at the 50% retracement target near 1.5784, but is still ongoing. wave a of the zig-zag correction went from 1.5265 to 1.5777 the wave b itself wave a zig-zag from 1.5777 down to 1.5390, from wave wave c of the zig-zag has begun towards an ideal target near 1.5905.
I don't really have a preferred scenario between the two. I do think they have a fifty-fifty percent chance of coming through, so we will have to be flexible. That said Scenario 2 gains the upper hand if we break clearly above 1.5635.
Thanks for the crude and gbp/usd update. I am looking for crude to break the support 84.00 But eur/yen looks no ways as you have mentioned eur/usd is looking to complete the zigzag correction towards 1.2400 area then eur/yen should follow eur with it unless there is a huge decline of usd/yen towards 76.00 area...........So I wont trade eur/yen . The best scenario is currently trading nzd/usd with low risk entry with the break of support of 0.7860 . Gold is also looking vulernable with eyeing china stimulus so I would trade cautiously ............Have you seen any important support above 1570 to break which could push it through 1550 and 1521 area I would be very glad to know the possible count of gold this time.
ReplyDeleteThanks take care Trade of last week was gold and nzd/usd fetch me huge profits.
regards
Aman
Is it a diagonal wedge ?
ReplyDeleteHi Aman Arora,
ReplyDeleteI too like the NZD/USD setup. The conservative trade here would be as you say to wait for a break below support at 0.7860. However you will have a low risk entry near 0.8010 with a stop just above 0.8074. If the count pans out as expected you will be well into the money when you hit 0.7860 and you will be able to lower your stop close to your break-even point.
Regarding EUR/JPY. I do think I have nailed it more or less to perfection. We knew that the ongoing wave four should complex and shallow. What we are seeing is a expanding flat correction. Wave a went from 96.40 to 97.31 followed by wave b from 97.31 down to 96.14 (remember I said that we could see one last drop to 96.11 - I have often seen the b-wave of expanding flats reach a specific target that would otherwise be missed) and we are currently working on wave c, which I do belive should reach the 98.00 - 98.13 target-zone or very close to this target-zone.
I'm happy for your profitable trades in gold and NZD/USD - Well done!
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Probabilities with....
ReplyDeleteYou still have two possible scenarios here. If wave 2 ended where I marked "2" it could resemble a diagonal or a wedge. If wave 2 is ongoing (the jury is still out there...) then wave A (where I have the "2" mark) could have been a leading diagonal, followed by a simple zig-zag in wave B and we are now in wave C towards 1.5905.
If I should choose I slightly prefer the scenario where wave 2 is already in place at 1.5777 (50% retracement), but a break above 1.5721 will invalidate this count and call for wave 2 as ongoing.
Kind regards
EWS