EUR/USD - The path I laid out yesterday has pretty much described the price-action we have seen. I still think we could see wave c move a little higher towards the 1.2362 - 1.2404 area, but it's not a necessity. It's also time to try to figure out where blue wave v will have its most likely targets. The first target come in close to 1.2105, while the second comes in around 1.1985. Of the two targets I think that the 1.1985 target is the most likely target.
USD/JPY - It has been some time since I last visited this cross, but not much has happened here. However we are now getting close to the most likely ending point for wave 2, which is near 78.59 (the low has been 78.67 for now). Once wave 2 is finally over we should see the much more dynamic and powerful wave 3 take over towards 83.38.
NZD/USD - Here we have seen a move closer to the 0.8011 resistance level (the high has been 0.8004) and risk is for real turning towards the downside. A break below minor support at 0.7927 will be the first indication that wave ii is over and wave iii is taking over. Once wave iii really takes hold a break below support at 0.7858 should be no trouble, but for now lets try to pick the top of wave ii as good a we possible can.
EUR/JPY - Wave iv has indeed become complex (an Expanding flat) and it has been shallow. I'm still looking for the c-wave of wave iv to end near 97.96 from where the risk again points to the downside and a decline towards the ideal downside target near 94.58.
EUR/NZD - Made a slight new low at 1.5303 keeping the downtrend since the 1.6969 alive, but as we are in the very last part of the decline the utmost care should be taken. As long as minor resistance at 1.5410 protects the upside we could see a move closer to the ideal target-area between 1.5205 - 1.5245, but a break above 1.5410 and more importantly 1.5505 will call for the bottom being in place and a rally towards at least the 1.5808 - 1.5885 area.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - The jury is still out there voting on, which scenario is the correct one. We could have seen wave 2 end at 12,961 or wave 2 is still ongoing and needs one last rally closer to 13,029 before it's finally done.
A break above resistance at 12,830 will tilt the odds in favor of one more rally higher is needed, while a break below 12,630 will tilt the odds towards wave 2 ending at 12,961 and wave 3 already being developed.
Gold - I'm still looking for one last rally into the target-area between 1,598 - 1,604, before the downside risk taking over. However there is a slight risk that we have already seen the top of red wave ii at 1,596.50, but to make that the preferred scenario it will take a direct break below 1,578.
Crude Oil - The price-action since yesterday has shifted the odds in favor of one last rally higher towards resistance at 90.18 and maybe even an overshoot towards 90.87 before a break below 86.41 confirms that the next decline towards 72.00 is well under way.
Thank you for your replies on my first comments on your blog !
ReplyDeleteI would like to comment on USD/JPY.
The ABC correction in above pic of USD/JPY has to be WAVE 4 of the first impulse that is running, if you see candlestick chart in 4H or 8H time frame you will see a sharp candle are making LOW of 77.64 & high of 78.70 !
That was probably Wave 1, thus the ABC correction in above pic should be wave 4 and more so above ABC correction if you see refused to cross 78.70 ( the 1st leg )
I have been keeping it as first wave since it begin..
But that is just a probability.
Regards
Hi Probabilities within EW counting,
ReplyDeleteI can not figure out how you have wave 1 ending at 78.70?
I would count the rally from 77.65 as follows:
Wave i goes from 77.65 to 78.35
Wave ii goes from 78.35 to 77.96
Wave iii goes from 77.96 to 79.78 (2.618 * wave 1)
Wave iv goes from 79.78 to 78.77 and finally
Wave v goes from 78.77 to 80.59
That marked wave 1 of one bigger degree. Since the 80.59 high I count a three wave decline to 78.67, which I will mark as wave 2.
If you mark the decline from 80.59 to 78.67 as your wave iv of 1 I do think you will get in trouble trying to estimate wave v of 1.
An other thing that I think add credence to my count above is if you do an Elliott Channel combining wave ii and iv and the parallel line from the top of wave iii, then wave v ends perfectly on that line and during the following correction you break below the channel, which raises the odds that they should be counted as wave 1 and 2.
If I have misinterpreted your count I hope you will give me a more clear picture of how you see it.
Kind regards
EWS
Hello Ews,
ReplyDeletethanks for your details on the pair.
I use candlestick charting, if you use candlestick in 4h chart you will see there is GREEN Bar (01 june 2012) with very small body compared to its
shadows, the green color means it was ended above from previous candle's low.
This means this candle marked the LOW frist then High the lower back. Thus it ened wave 5 and Finished wave 1 @ 78.695
Wave 3 finsied @ 80.60 area, which Extened
Wave 4 finished @78.69 as well
Thus we are Probably facing wave 5th.
Well, currently I am not trading with this pair since this ABC or 4th wave(probably) has took my interest in illusions !
+
I would like to ask something.
I read in some book, it claimed about wave 1 could be a Wedge (diagonal) in an impulse or in Wave C
Is it possible to have Wave 4 as Wedge? ( currently Eur/Usd )
Thank you for your relevant replies!
Regards
Elliott wave counting
In eur/usd this 4th wave of Down-Impulse could be anything May be Expanding Triangle.
DeleteAmazingly it is following Sharp A when rising and Sharp C when falling, thus making it Wedge like expanding triangle !
It could be anything, rest are probabilities !