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Monday, July 9, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI; DAX and Gold

 EUR/USD - Is working its way lower nicely and more or less as expected. Light green wave iii most likely ended at 1.2231 and we should see a minor correction in light green wave iv towards 1.2381, with a slight chance for making it to 1.2428, before light green wave v takes us down to 1.2207 and likely also towards the 1.2097 - 1.2128 area.
 NZD/USD - The decline from 0.8074 still isn't a five wave decline, but odds very much favor one more decline towards support near 0.7855. A decline to 0.7855 will create a five wave decline from 0.8074 and indicate that an important top is in place a call for much lower levels later.
 EUR/JPY - Has now broken below important support at 98.30 and wave v towards the ideal target near 94.58 is well under way.
Short term we should be looking for blue wave iv towards the 98.23 - 98.30 area, with a slight chance of a bigger correction into the 98.69 - 99.09 area before blue wave v takes over for a decline towards 95.65.
 EUR/NZD - Pink wave v towards 1.5245 is progressing well. We are currently in light green wave iv, which ideally should take us up to 1.5471 before light green wave v takes over for a decline into the 1.5245 area.
I have one "Heads up" thus as both black wave v and pink wave v have extended why should light green wave v not extend? If it does we could see a spike lower to 1.5110 before the decline from 1.6969 is finally over.
 Dow Jones Industrial Index - As we have been just a few points below the ideal target-area for wave 2 and the decline from 12,953 does look impulsive we could have begun wave 3 down. However there is a slight possibility, that the decline from 12.953 is wave "c" of an minor expanded flat correction, which means we should see one last new high just above 12,953 and into the ideal target-area.
If we only see a move higher towards 12,862 followed by a break below 12,703 wave 3 is under way, while a break above 12,862 will raise odds, that one last minor high is needed.
 German Dax - As is the case for DJI we could well have finished wave 2 and wave 3 down should now be under way. If wave 2 is done we should ideally see a clear break below 6,350. If however support is found at 6,350 odds favors one last rally towards 6,818 before wave 2 is finally over.
Gold - The decline from 1,624.75 does look impulsive and we should soon see the next decline into the support area between 1,565 - 1,567. However the important support is at 1,521 only a break below here will really open up the downside for a much deeper decline.

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