EUR/USD - The shallow complex blue wave iv continues to drag out in time going almost nowhere. Actually we shouldn't be to surprised of this outcome... The only problem is our patience.
I'm still looking for a spike towards the 1.2362 - 1.2404 area, before this wave iv correction is over however we need to be aware that a break below 1.2187 also will tell us it's over and that blue wave v down to 1.2105 and more likely 1.1985 is already under way.
USD/JPY - Has now reached its ideal corrective-target at 78.60 and we should be ready for a turn-around any time now. Could we see USD/JPY a little lower? Yes of cause, but wave iii could start at any time now. The first clue that wave ii is done will be a break above 79.36 and confirmed by a break above 80.09, which should take us towards at least 83.18 in wave iii.
GBP/USD - The break above resistance at 1.5721 confirm, that wave 2 from 1.5265 is still ongoing in a double zig-zag correction and will likely reach the 1.5905 target, before downside pressure again takes over. A break above. In the bigger picture we are in the early stages of a downside thrust from the big B-wave triangle that ended ultimo April 2012 at 1.6305. The long term target for this downside thrust is at 1.2645.
NZD/USD - The break above 0.8018 has made me more alert, but I still think the wave ii count is the best fit, that said under no circumstances can a break above the 0.8074 high be allowed as that will change the bigger picture.
Looking at the price-action from 0.7857 it's well defined within a rising channel, which is what we would expect for a zig-zag correction and we must also remember that second waves is allowed to correction 99% of the first wave.
Short term a break below 0.7977 will be the first indication that wave ii is done, but only a break below 0.7919 confirms, that wave ii is done and wave iii is under way to below 0.7857
EUR/JPY - Has broken below minor support at 96.37 which is the first indication that the final decline towards the 94.10 - 94.58 area is already under way. There still is a small possibility that wave iv is still ongoing, but as I have said before this wave iv was expected to be a shallow and complex correction.
EUR/NZD - Has now entered the target-zone between 1.5205 - 1.5245 (the low has been 1.5208). As long as minor resistance at 1.5371 and more importantly 1.5450 protects the upside we could see one last stab towards 1.5150 before the bottom is finally in place. That said we are in the very last part of the decline since the 1.6969 high and this is called bottom-fishing, but as it was with Natural Gas once the bottom is in place the reward will be well worth it...
Dow Jones Industrial Index - Wave 2 is still ongoing and we should see a move closer towards the 13,028 target before the downside pressure takes over again. Once the top is in place it should just be a matter of time before strong support at 12,450 is taken out for the next powerful decline. Complacency is painted all over this market again.
Gold - I'm still looking for a test of the all important support at 1,521 soon and a break here will call for a much deeper decline in gold. However as long as support at 1,521 stays firm we could see more sideways price-action.
For the short term only a break above 1,592 will delay the downside price-action towards 1,547 as the next target.
Crude Oil - The break above 90.18 means that red wave v of C has become extended, which calls for 93.18 as the first target however there is a risk for this market going all the way back to 95.37 in a mini moon-shot before the downside pressure takes over again.
Eur @ 1.21800 level, I still can't fix any downside waves !
ReplyDeleteI think this is reversal and eur most probably reaching 1.23600 level from now on
Ray
It's not.
ReplyDeleteI need deep analysis of waves
However, the 4h chart is clearly simple
It was double zigzag !
But in lower time frame, it was very hard, it doesn't made me feel of impulse begining there
I will look forward your advise for trading bigger time frames
Thanks
Have a gr8 weekend
Ray
Hi Ray,
ReplyDeleteThe lower time frames can help you pick the start of a new trend, but in my view trying to count the time frames below the hourly is very difficult and one have a tendency to loose the sight of where you are in the bigger picture.
Therefore you should follow a daily chart as you main guide, but time your trading with a hourly or 4 hourly chart, but that's just how I do it.
You should do, what feels best for you and what you feel gives you the best overview of the count.
Kind regards and have a great weekend too
EWS
Thanks Ews,
DeleteI read somewhere, economy doesn't move forex market but Psychology do.
Elliot wave are nothing but channels & waves of psychology.
I can't figure out that easy about above statement but surely I can gist it.
I need to learn about it.
On other side,
I think you are only one in this world who give constant Elliot waves count with 99 % accuracy & without any conditions.
My best regards
Ray
Hi Ray,
ReplyDeleteIn my view, no matter which market we are talking about or the economy, it's all about Psychology.
Thank you! It's really very much appreciated.
Kind regards
EWS