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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DAX; GOld and Natural Gas

 EUR/USD - I'm still looking for one last decline closer to the 1.1985 target from where we should expect a correction to at least 1.2306. A decline to 1.1985 will also fulfil the Elliott Channeling technique, where we connect the top of wave 2 to the top of wave 4 and draw a parallel line from the bottom of wave 3 (blue channel).
 USD/JPY - We saw a nice long bullish wicked bar yesterday indicating that the correction from 80.59 could be over with the low of 77.95 however we now need the bullish bar to be confirmed by a break above 78.46 which will call for a continuation towards resistance at 79.40 and a break above here will confidence in a bottom being in place at 77.95.
 NZD/USD - Tested support at 0.7857. The first test was rejected, but after we have seen a correction towards the 0.7958 - 0.7981 area, from where we should see renewed downside-pressure and this time I very much doubt that support at 0.7857 will be able to protect the downside.
 EUR/JPY - Just needs one last decline to the 94.00 - 94.14 area to end the decline from not alone the 101.62, but also the bigger decline from 111.43. The the bottom is in place we should expect a powerful rally towards resistance in the 101.28 - 101.62 area.
 EUR/NZD - Here we saw a very dynamic rally yesterday to 1.5398, which was the first indication that an important long term bottom was found at 1.5131. Short term we should see a minor correction into the 1.5233 - 1.5265 area, from where we should expect the next rally higher towards 1.5450 and 1.5801.
 German DAX-Index - Back-tested the broken support-line and is now ready to break below support at 6,096 and 5,914 for a continuation towards 5,004 and possibly even lower
 Gold - The short term count has become very messy, but I'm not in doubt that we soon will see a test of the all important support at 1,521 I also do believe, that we will break below this support for a much bigger decline, but for now lets concentrate of the coming test of strong support at 1,521.
Natural Gas - Is well under way towards its next target near 3.62. Longer term we should look for even higher levels.
We have also seen a very nice Shoulder/Head/Shoulder bottom being build over the last six month, with a perfect break above the neck-line and back-test of the neck-line. This is really a textbook example, that Robert D. Edwars and John Magee, would have been proud of showing in their book.

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