EUR/USD - I'm still looking for a continuation higher towards 1.2322 as the first target for red wave 4. Remember we are only in the infant start of red wave 4, which should at least take 12 days to finish (it can of cause take longer). Also remember we should be looking after a complex correction, likely a combination of some kind.
USD/JPY - Here I'm looking for a break above minor resistance at 78.46 soon for a continuation towards the 79.17 - 79.22 area, a break above this area will add confidence in my count and a break above 79.41 will kill any bearish counts and call for a break above 80.09 soon.
The risk is of cause a break below 77.65, that will invalidate any bullish count and call for a new decline to 76.00 and finally below the 75.55 low set in October 2011.
USD/CAD - Has reached the ideal target-window. We could still see this minor wave ii lower towards the 61.8% retracement target of wave i at 1.0129 as long as minor resistance at 1.0166 protects the upside, but a break above minor resistance at 1.0166 will indicate that wave iii is under way for a rally towards at least 1.0405.
EUR/JPY - Here I'm still waiting for the break above minor resistance at 95.22 to add the first indication, that an important low for the decline since the 111.43 high is in place at 94.09 and a new rally higher towards at least the 101.36 - 101.62 is under way.
EUR/NZD - Here the big question is whether we are close to finish green wave ii for a rally towards 1.5654 or red wave ii is still ongoing as a expanded flat correction?
As long as minor support at 1.5289 stays intact I will keep the one/two - one/two count a look for a break above 1.5372 and more importantly 1.5441 for a continuation higher towards 1.5654. However a break below 1.5289 and of cause a break below 1.5261 will call for a decline to 1.5220 in an expanded flat correction, before we can expect the next rally higher towards 1.5654.
Gold - I said yesterday, that the short term count had become a mess, which should have been a alert to me, but some times you just can see the forest for trees...
The best count for now seems to be, that we are in a B-wave triangle, which should be very close to resistance around 1,610, however a small break above 1,610 can be allowed, but the top of wave C at 1,624.70 should hold firm for a break below 1,597 and more importantly 1,580, which will confirm that a thrust out of the triangle to the downside is under way.
its quite a while since I have commented. I like eur/yen trade but nothing works since then nzd/usd breaks the support and inches higher to test the high's again.
ReplyDeleteBut pair I am looking for is usd/cad Now as usd/cad has retraced the second wave beyond the start of wave i think this count is invalid. what would be the next scenario............
I request you to post the setups again. and gbp/usd again found support 1.5470 You still think it has the power to send the pair to 1.5905 Please update these two charts.
Regards
Aman
Hi Shikha Arora,
ReplyDeleteYou are right the break below 1.0062 in USD/CAD invalidated my count. That means that the rally from 1.0062 to 1.0237 was an X-wave and we are looking at a triple correction from the 1.0446 high.
The decline to 1.0060 most likely marked wave a of the third correction and we should now look for wave b towards the 1.0155 - 1.0165 area from where we should expect the final decline in wave c down to 0.9992.
For NZD/USD the picture changed slightly with the break above 0.7922. Instead of red wave i ending at 0.7862 the decline from 0.8054 to 0.7797 should be counted as red wave i and the current rally as red wave ii. Invalidation is at 0.8054 any break above 0.8054 will leave us with a three wave decline from 0.8074 call for a rally back above here.
Regarding GBP/USD yes I still think that we will see resistance at 1.5905 tested.
Kind regards
EWS