Elliott wave and technical analysis on AUD/NZD

AUD/NZD - Here is the reason why AUD have taken the lead down. As can be seen a big S/H/S top seems to be building. We had a nice five wave decline from 137.94 - 123.16 as wave 1 or A followed by a three wave rally to the 61.8% retracement target of wave 1 or A at 132.31 and have now begun wave 3 or C down which should at least see a decline to 118 but I find it more likely that we see a continuation down to just below 109 as this would be both the S/H/S target once the neckline support near 124.50 is broken and it would also be where wave 3 or C is 1.618 times longer that wave 1 or A.
For now we should be looking a break below the neckline support for a direct decline, but the risk is that we only sees a decline to 119.35 and a second right shoulder needs to be build from there, but time will tell.