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Monday, April 16, 2012

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/TRY

 EUR/USD - Is again at the S/H/S neckline near 130.10. Looking at the bigger picture (see the upper chart) we can see that this S/H/S top is just part of an possible even bigger S/H/S top with neckline support near 126.50.
I would now like to see support at 129.70 broken for a continuation towards the first real target for this decline near 128.60, but I believe we will see a continuation down towards the ideal target near 126.50.
 USD/JPY - Has surprisingly broken below support at 80.55 which will delay the upside pressure for a probable continuation down towards the next strong support-area between 79.85 - 80.05 before up again. Only a direct break above 81.20 will confirm that the bottom is in place for a new rally towards 82.25 and 84.17 on its way to 85.50.
 GBP/USD - Here too we are sitting right at important support, which if broken will open for a powerful decline towards 156.00 and below 152.30 in the next serious downside pressure.
Resistance is found at 158.55, but we must accept a rally to even the 159.00 - 159.10 area before down. I do find the likelihood of a rally towards the 159.00 - 159.10 area very slim, but it's a possibility.

EUR/JPY - Tried to stages a rally but clearly failed, which has opened up for a possible decline towards the 104.05 - 104.15 area before the next upside pressure will be seen.
Important resistance is now found at 107.10 and only a break above here will confirm, that a wave 2 bottom is in place for the next powerful rally higher towards 111.45 and 118.85 longer term.

EUR/TRY - Finally seems to be ready to challenge the downside again. The consolidation since the 228.49 has taken longer than I first expected, but it hasn't change anything in the overall picture, which still calls for a decline to the double top target near 221.25.
A close below 233.75 confirms the renewed downside pressure.

You should know that this is one of my favorite crosses for the time being together with buying TRY against AUD; NZD and CAD.

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